Monday, December 02, 2019

S&P Breaks Rising Sep-Nov Channel

It was no surprise to see indices fall to - or out of - their narrow channels as traders look to consolidate the advance.

In the case of the S&P this resulted in a fresh MACD trigger 'sell' and higher volume distribution.

Nasdaq losses didn't undercut the rising channel but the index will be vulnerable to further losses tomorrow. However, until it does - support holds and aggressive buyers can take interest.

The Russell 2000 continues to trade inside its rising channel and unlike the Nasdaq or S&P has not yet seen a MACD 'sell' - although volume did register as distribution.

With the broadening wedge in the Semiconductor Index it 's looking like prices are pressuring the lower half of this wedge. This could lead to channel breakdowns for the the Nasdaq and Nasdaq 100.

Volatility picked up over the course of 2018 but has found some stability over the latter part of 2019. We are looking at a possible swing low for this index and potentially a rough-and-tumble introduction for 2020 (note - this is a monthly chart).

For the remainder of 2019 we may see some sideways consolidation as traders digest September-December gains, but I suspect prices won't linger around here for long before rallies resume.

You've now read my opinion, next read Douglas' blog.

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Investments are held in a pension fund on a buy-and-hold strategy.