Action Tightens at Resistance

It's all getting very constricted and narrow at resistance but bears haven't been able to break this extended rally. While I have marked nascent potential short positions at such resistance they remain vulnerable to any decent one-day's gain. Ideally, I would like to see indices drift back to their 50-day MAs but nobody seems willing to blink.

The Nasdaq is hugging its 200-day MA but it's struggling to break through this moving average despite strength in the Semiconductor Index. One point of concern is the loss in relative strength versus the S&P

The Semiconductor Index is running along channel resistance. It's one of the few indices to have cleared October-February price congestion with ease, but it hasn't yet been able to bring other indices with it.  Today's bearish 'cloud cover' suggests further weakness ahead and a possible move back to channel support.

Finally, the Russell 2000 is lingering around its 200-day MA but hasn't fully flashed a reversal pattern at this key moving average. It does enjoy a relative performance advantage over the Nasdaq, which suggests it remains favored as a target for money flow and therefore stands the best chance of breaking through.

It appears everyone is expecting a sell-off after such an extended gain, but nobody seems willing to initiate it. At the same time, nobody wants to buy at these levels, so markets limp along higher

You've now read my opinion, next read Douglas' blog.

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Investments are held in a pension fund on a buy-and-hold strategy.

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