Monday, January 14, 2019

Swing trade breaks in Shorts favour but no follow through lower.

From a pure price perspective, the suggested swing trades broke to the downside, but the lack of follow-through beyond the opening hour doesn't suggest shorts are going to win here.  However, until last Thursday's/Friday's highs are breached the short plays can probably be held until they are decisively beaten. Ohers could look to a hedge with a long trade using a stop on a break of today's lows. With long/short covered the risk is whipsaw.

The Russell 2000 was the only index to finish with a lower close and if shorts are going to win out then this is likely to be the index to deliver.


Large Cap indices had offered a more ideal technical shorting opportunity at resistance but both the S&P and Dow Index managed to recover from the weak opening.



Tech averages still have the best long-side opportunity with the doji above support; shorts may have taken the gap down as an entry opportunity but as there was no follow-through stops will need to be kept tight.



For tomorrow, with a weak short trade in play it will be a question of managing risk; be prepared to switch long if last Thursday's highs are breached. Whipsaw is the biggest enemy here.


You've now read my opinion, next read Douglas' blog.


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Investments are held in a pension fund on a buy-and-hold strategy.
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