S&P Breakout Holds

Friday's action was good for what didn't happen. Trading was muted, with action trading inside very narrow ranges, different to what had happened the day before. The S&P probably came out the best of it as Friday's action held Thursday's break of 2115.  Watch Monday's premarket action closely. Assuming no damage in the Europe or Asian session there is a good chance bulls could be let off the shackles. Ideally, one would want an open above 2115 to set the tone.


The Nasdaq hasn't yet mounted a challenge of' 5,120. Bears looking for a reversal head-and-shoulder pattern would not want to see a push above 5,063 as this would negate the pattern. Bulls will have the MACD trigger 'buy' to work off.


The Russell 2000 had already delivered a clear channel breakout, but Friday's trading marked a rejection of the 50-day MA. However, bulls also got a MACD trigger 'buy', which gives a fresh opportunity for a new moving average challenge.


The Semiconductor Index is working off converged support of 704, 50-day MA and declining resistance. It's nicely set for Monday.


Next week could be the time bulls finally take indices out of their 4-month trading ranges and keep this six year rally ticking.

You've now read my opinion, next read Douglas' and Jani's.

Share on StockTwits

---

Accepting KIVA gift certificates to help support the work on this blog. All certificates gifted are converted into loans for those who need the help more.

Follow Me on Twitter




Dr. Declan Fallon is the Senior Market Technician and Community Director for Zignals.com, and Product Development Manager for ActivateClients.com. I do a weekly broadcast on Friday's at 13:30 GMT for Tradercast, covering indices, FX and gold, silver and oil - all are welcome! You can read what others are saying about Zignals on Investimonials.com.

JOIN ZIGNALS TODAY - IT'S FREE!

Popular posts from this blog

Friday's gap downs bring indices close to support. Semiconductor Index at 200-day MA.

Image
Friday's big gaps lower have the potential to become breakdown gaps, but for now, the near term oversell has for a possible move into the gap price vacuum. The index most likely to achieve this in the coming days is the Russell 2000 ($IWM). The Russell 2000 ($IWM) finished with a neutral doji, just above its 50-day MA and in a thick band of support between $207.50 and $210 marked by the summer swing highs. Technicals have followed price action with new 'sell' triggers in On-Balance-Volume and ADX, but intermediate term stochastics haven't reached the mid-line that is typical support in bull markets. Aggressive bulls can look for a move to test the underside of the 20-day MA. The S&P was unable to hold its 50-day MA on Friday's open, and instead found itself toying with the May swing high. More significant support is likely to be found around 5,265, so if there is an undercut of Friday's low then this will be the next port of call. More concer...
Read more

Upcoming "Death Cross" for Russell 2000 ($IWM)

Image
There was some modest buying today from the open, but volume was light and markets are below trading range support established during the latter part of 2024. It's hard to see where the buyers are going to come from given the chaos of Trump. I should add, I listened to Josh Brown's The Compound podcast and he showed an interesting chart of market returns in April-May in the year following a strong return in markets; in essence, selling to pay capital gains tax. Given the precarious nature of markets, and the possibility for this seasonal factor to play out, it's likely we have a couple more months of downward action before value buyers return. If we look at individual markets, the Russell 2000 ($IWM) is looking like the first to signal a long term shift in favor of bears with an upcoming "Death Cross" between the 50-day MA and 200-day MA - perhaps completing before the end of the week. Technicals are net bearish and the volume trend has collapsed since the st...
Read more

"Dead Cat" Bounce or Something Better?

Image
It's still a little too early to say, but the bounce is in play and "long" is the place to be. There is a huge amount of overhead resistance and the risk:reward remains tight with moves back to Thursday's lows well within expectations. For the S&P, I would be looking for a rally back to test the 200-day MA, or a fast-falling 20-day MA, whichever is the lowest. Real supply won't kick in until 5,700 is tested, and maybe it will have the juice to get to 5,775 before volume selling makes its presence felt. As the index makes this move I expect to see a decent On-Balance-Volume 'buy' signal, alongside what will be a weak MACD 'buy'; other technicals are likely to remain bearish.
Read more

Archive

Show more