'Bear Trap' in Russell 2000

I'm not entirely convinced by today's bounce, but it does set a baseline on which to measure risk. There are a couple of long side opportunities. The first of which is the Semiconductor Index: it has reached the bounce zone a little earlier than expected, but while it honors this converged support it has long-side potential. Stops go on a loss of 608.

The Russell 2000 managed a recovery of yesterday's break of the May swing low. Stops go on a loss of 1,078 with an upside target of the 20-day MA. The index managed a close over my 15% percentile accumulate MA boundary (see the table at the end of this post). This is a relatively low risk, long side opportunity, for those looking to take a punt.

The S&P spiked low with a bullish doji ('dragonfly doji'). A loss of the lows marks a place for stops, but given the depth of the lower shadow there is a good chance of a retest of the low.  The index finished with a net bearish turn in technicals.

The Nasdaq is also net bearish technically and has to deal with a trendline break, but with a lack of natural support to defend the doji.

For tomorrow, the Russell 2000 is the most extended in the short term and will likely lead the recovery higher. The semiconductor index has the most support to work with. Losses tomorrow which don't take out today's low can be considered bullish.

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Dr. Declan Fallon is the Senior Market Technician and Community Director for Zignals.com, and Product Development Manager for ActivateClients.com. You can read what others are saying about Zignals on Investimonials.com.


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