Daily Market Commentary: Sizable Rally But No Volume

Wednesday's finish offered bulls their day trade opportunity, but the volume wasn't really there to suggest something more than a bear rally.   However, the overall trend remains on the side of the bulls - so bears will need to remain cautious despite the past week's action.

However, the S&P did close well above the 20-day MA, in what could have been an attack point for shorts. Resistance at 1,880 is next with the 'bull trap' at 1,898 after that. Technicals are mixed, but stochastics suggest bulls still have control.

The Nasdaq finished with a 'bear trap', supported by an On-Balance-Volume 'buy'. Note convergence of 20-day and 50-day MA with likely 'Death Cross'.  A continuation of the rally to this converged resistance would make a reasonable upside target - offering something for bulls and bears.

The Russell 2000 confirmed its 'bear trap' too. Thursday's action around the 50-day MA may see a slow down in the advance.  Technicals are on the bearish side of the fence, but not oversold enough to suggest yesterday was a swing low. Buying caution advised. Also note the relative swing away from Small Caps to Tech (and Large Caps).

Tomorrow may see a little more upside, but without the volume to back the gains it won't be long before bears get another chance to impress. Watch for channel resistance in the Russell 2000 and Nasdaq. Bulls have the best opportunity in the S&P, especially if the 'bull trap' is challenged.


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Dr. Declan Fallon is the Senior Market Technician and Community Director for Zignals.com.
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