Monday, March 03, 2014

Daily Market Commentary: S&P and Russell 2000 'Bull Traps'

Somewhat inevitable events in the Ukraine were going to nix the nascent breakouts for the S&P and Russell 2000. The net sum is to drop these indices into broad trading ranges for which a move to support (the January low) is perhaps the next move. A stop at a break of 'bull trap' highs is the protective stop.

The Russel 2000 is also presenting a shorting opportunity. Again, the 'bull trap' high is the stop, and January lows are the target. The fly in the ointment is converged channel support, and 20-day and 50-day MAs which will offer bulls a chance to fight back. Taking partial profits on such a test would give the larger trade some wiggle room.

The Nasdaq is the only index not to lose breakout support. If buyers are looking for a bounce, this is the index to play.

The Ukraine situation will probably keep markets muted until there is a clearer resolution. But Russians cutting gas flow to European markets would be a different story.


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Dr. Declan Fallon is the Senior Market Technician and Community Director for
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