Monday, April 11, 2011

Daily Market Commentary: Bearish Creep

The loss in quality of stock breakouts combined with the slow rollover in markets has left the broader rally vulnerable to a more substantial decline. However, there is still the issue of 20-day and 50-day MAs as support. So buyers have a logical place to step in and defend.

The Russell 2000 closed below 836 and triggered a 'sell' in the CCI. This is a worrying development as it has been the key driver of the rally in recent weeks.



While the Nasdaq looks to have swung from bear trap to bull trap as the breakdown gap from February remains valid. Volume climbed to register confirmed distribution as it came close to a 50-day MA test.



Finally, the S&P lingered below 1,343 resistance with only lighter volume to offer as any consolation.



Further losses are likely until indices test 50-day and/or 20-day MAs (whichever is higher). For tomorrow, another day like today would not be surprising.

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