Weekly Market Commentary: Rally Maintained

A solid performance for the week kept the summer bullish momentum rolling. With bulls in control there is no immediate risk of a reversal - although market tops tend to be slow to develop.

The S&P traded similar volume the past few weeks, which is a little disappointing given the upside break of the ascending triangle.


via StockCharts.com

The Nasdaq managed a successful backtest of support and is well positioned to advance to 2,535.


via StockCharts.com

The Nasdaq 100 is trading between two reaction highs in 2008; 1,978 support and 2,022 resistance (the move to 2,053 in 2010 was a bull trap). A weekly close above 2,022 brings 2,130 into range.


via StockCharts.com

With respect to Tech breadth the best of the action came in the Percentage of Nasdaq Stocks above the 50-day MA. The breadth indicator cleared the bearish divergence dating back to 2009 - a significant bullish development for the long term.


via StockCharts.com

The Nasdaq Summation Index has room to resistance which is also bullish for the market.


via StockCharts.com

Bears will be looking to the Percentage of S&P Stocks above the 50-day MA - although July 2009 saw the breadth indicator reach 93% and it was another 6 months before the market topped (as the breadth indicator again reached 93%).


via StockCharts.com

Until proven otherwise this market is a bulls market. Other than a hot looking S&P breadth indicator (Percentage stocks above 50-day MA) there does not appear to be an immediate market top in play. If a top is true, then look to the S&P for leads.

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