Monday, September 13, 2010

Weekly review of charts; Partial Post

We start the week off with Anthony Allyn of Elliorwavehound as we search for the elusive wave 2 top. It appears to be part of a broader triangle consolidation on the 60-min timeframe:

His Volatility (VIX) chart is another one to watch. Not at support yet which means the rally might have more upside to it.

Anthony Caldaro of Objectiveelliotwave points to a more bullish count - with the current rally a wave 3 of what should be a larger move higher (EWT always catches me out, so information is presented as offered).

Richard Lehman of the Channelist has illustrated larger down channels from April highs which soon will see a test.

9/12 -- The green channels remain intact, or in some cases may be widening. That means another leg up in the ST channel is likely this week. But long term resistance form the big purples will be felt. Watch the ST green for a break, even if it bounces first.

9/9 -- The morning rally couldn't hold, but almost everything remains in the green ST upchannels, so another little upmove is still possible tomorrow. But I think this was an induced rally that is not going to last much longer. If it only went a little higher and then reversed down through the green lines, the long term purple downchannels will essentially still be intact. I still see more downside than upside in equities right now.

9/7 -- The pullback is very much in line with teh extended short term charts and with the long term touches of the purple downtrend line. A little more weakness tomorrow (about 50-60 Dow points) would bring the short term charts down to the lower green channel lines. If this move is to continue, it should bounce there.

9/5 -- The short term charts have broken into green upchannels and have even accelerated. The more important issue, however, is that the broad market indexes(SPX, RUT and others) are already back at the upper purple lines on the long term charts, and stochastics suggest they have not yet peaked. Some foreign markets have already broken the long term purple (see FTSE and Toronto) and it appears likely that the US markets will also. If that happens, it will put a much less bearish spin on the long term charts...for now

New programs to boost the economy are coming out this week. There will likely be a lift to the market on such news initially, but when reality sets in later, I expect things will retrace.

9/3 -- Short term channels accelerated on the upside this morning, but the SPX hit the upper purple on the one-year chart and that should represent considerable resistance, if not a reversal point back down. More analysis over the weekend...

Yong Pan of Cobrasmarketview has perhaps one of the most neutral market calls I have seen from him:

The auto-trade model gave a short and quick cover signal

Although there is a 'buy' signal based on breadth indicators

Given the market is already open I'll leave this summary as is; given the bright opening bears will be feeling the stress.

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