Weekly Market Commentary: Bulls Blink?

With another week of my vacation left it was all go for the markets. The semiconductor index was first to blink as the 200-day MA broke on the daily before the lead indices tanked the next day. The semiconductor index went one step further and crashed through trading range support; lead indices remain range bound but I suspect they will follow suit next week unless bulls can create a bear trap in the semiconductor index.

($SOX)

via StockCharts.com

Weekly charts are looking more ominous for bulls. In the S&P note how stochastics are some way from turning oversold. Don't expect 61.8% Fib retracement to hold as support as it did earlier this year.

($SPX)

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Same story for the Nasdaq. Only consolation is the low volume.

Nasdaq

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Nasdaq Bullish Percents showing lots of room to the downside if last year's lows are to be tested (although a brief drop sub-40 may be enough).

($BPCOMPQ)

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The confirmed buy in the Nasdaq Percentage of Stocks Above the 50-day MA may end up to be a bull trap as index and supporting indicators fail to touch resistance/overbought conditions.

($NAA50R)

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The Nasdaq Summation Index may have had a case of bad timing. Friday marked a confirmed 'buy' although the index itself is in the center of neutral territory; half-glass full types will view this as room to the upside, half-glass empty types will see this as plenty of room to the downside.

AAAA Nasdaq Summation Index (Ratio Adjusted) ($NASI): "

via StockCharts.com

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Markets look like they want to move lower; how much lower is the question. When market breadth indicators regain oversold territory will be the time to look for buying opportunities.

Back to my vacation (after I get some more trading jobs posted)

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