Monday, March 22, 2010

Weekly Review of Publishers' Charts

Friday's selling will have given the bears something to cheer but the back hasn't been broken for this rally.

Anthony Caldaro of tracks pivot prices for the S&P with wave 3 up in play; rally intact with wave 3 targets of 1,219 and 1,326.

Yong Pan of Cobrasmarketview maintains neutral rankings on the short term and mixed sentiment on the intermediate time frame

 Watch for black candlestick (strong gap open) for Monday; note all 'short sell' trigger

Inverse CPCE peaked

Same setup for the QQQQs

Richard Lehman of is watching broader February channels within which are mini-channels which broke for market leading small caps and Tech.
3/21 -- Friday's minor dip simply took the Dow to its lower blue minichannel line, where it promptly bounced before the close. The SPX did roughly the same, but the Naz, RUT, and tech stocks penetrated their blue minis and are heading toward their green channel lines. To be confident that a new short term downtrend is finally emerging, we would need to see the green channel lines break, so that's what we're watching for this week.

3/18 -- As the rally of the decade continues, one can only wonder what the correction to this bubble will look like when it comes. I tweaked a lot of charts and on the one-year charts I have adjusted the green channel lines to go through both the Feb low and last July's low, reflecting reality better than drawing them across the tops. Soon we will have to come up with a better word for this -- like 'Uber-over-bought'

3/17 -- Well the Dow Theory folks got their wish today as the Dow Jones Industrials confirmed the Transports new high. I don't know about you, but that makes me just want to run out and buy all the extended stocks I can load up on...right! I think I'll go out and have some green beer.

3/16 -- The Fed's non-event helped stocks lift, as did the dollar dropping. That also helped gold and oil gap upward before reaching larger support. Equity indexes hit or crawled along upper channel lines again and simply extended the overbought condition. Seems like old times - ey?

3/15 -- Another one-hour correction does an about face before day's end. But in addition to GLD, FXI and OIL are clearly in mini downtrends. Also, the small caps could not recover to Friday's highs like the large caps did, so there may be some weakness developing in the riskier sectors. All around, the action has clearly gotten choppy and flatter, albeit still heading higher. I'm still not going long until we pull back.
Michael G. Eckert of EWTrendsandcharts has a wave C 'top' for Russell 2000 on 60-min; more downside to follow

Joe Reed offers his weekly summary:

Banking Index 'Sell'

Note relationship between VIX and S&P; not sure we will reach the VIX lows of the late cyclical bull market but that doesn't mean they are not on the table.

Is the Summation Index at a top? Stochastics and the index pinned at resistance.

Finally, Robert New of TheInformedTrader  notes minimal resistance up to 1,250-1,300 band for S&P - supporting earlier EWT targets?

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