Monday, February 15, 2010

Weekly Review of Publishers' Charts

It's Presidents day so no trading for Monday. Last week saw some positive action on the dailies - what had the Stockcharters to say:

Anthony Caldaro of Objectiveelliottwave hasn't altered the count from the start of a wave 2 higher (for the S&P). Not sure I picked up on this last week, but he has a fourth wave down of a five wave bull run for the weekly Nasdaq

Richard Lehman of is looking for short term upside to continue - but not for very long.

2/13 -- Except for the Dow, the short term charts have all broken upward through the purple downchannels that began in mid January. Some (like RUT and FXI) have come back and successfully retested that purple as support. That gives a nod to further short term upside. However, the blue mini channels are relatively flat and do not have the look of strong new upchannels. In addition, the long term charts broken down through the first green target and are heading toward the second. Therefore, I view the short term up move as tenuous and likely to end within days and head lower.

2/11 -- The Dow has now eeked up to the upper line on its short term chart and stopped. All other major indexes have broken upward, albeit in rather flat blue minichannels. Despite the breaks upward, the flat channels do not provide a lot of confidence in much more of an upside bounce here. t remain cautious and watchful of another downleg.

2/10 -- The markets are now pondering whether the short term good news in Europe isn't just more bad news in the bigger picture. A few more short term charts hit upper channel lines, but no new breaks upward occurred. That means the direction is still down.

2/9 -- Greece saved? Dollar down. Stocks up. Equities continue to move in lock step with the dollar. Numerous charts with well defined downtrends are now back at the upper channel lines. Techs, golds, and the QQQQ have actually broken upward on the short term charts. But short term momentum is peaking, so a sustained up move from here is unlikely. Long term momentum seems to be turning upward, but that time scale could easily allow for a week or two more decline even while beginning to turn upward. Bottom line: watch the short term downchannels to see if the broader indexes break upward, but don't assume this decline is over yet.

I like this chart of his for a support low for this downphase.

Yong Pan of Cobrasmarketview has the majority of breadth indicators in neutral territory with the few showing trend favouring bears.

Makes a case for a bear flag in the SPY:

Fib resistance levels and 20-day MA also playing resistance (for the QQQQs)

Michael Eckert of EWTrendsandcharts has noted the break of the 45-degree support channel for the Russell 2000 60-min chart which suggests the mini-rally in play could stall out on a test of this former support-now resistance line.

Sample wave structure down for the SPY on the 60-min with Fib targets

Note nasty MACD and RSI bearish divergences in the S&P daily chart

Dr. Joe has his weekly summary:

Nice track of the Summation Index - no buy signal yet:

Consensus seems to suggest the current rally is nothing more than a pause in a larger move down. However, there is no suggestion of this been anything more than a pullback in a larger uptrend. Time will tell but probably no reason to jump to the long side if you missed last week's lows.

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