Monday, February 08, 2010

Weekly Review of Publishers' Charts

Are bulls to make a stand? The Stockcharters discuss.

Anthony Caldaro of has marked the start of wave 2 of a five wave pattern down on the 60-min SPX chart.

But on the daily timeframe this is still part of the three wave down (therefore for this to be true, 1,104 cannot be breached on the rally)

An alternate bull count for the Nasdaq:

Yong Pan of Cobrasmarketview has a swathe of neutral signals on the short and intermediate term time frames - it's anyones game.

Interesting take here - was Friday's strong afternoon response the necessary reversal or will these gains get pegged back Monday?

So Yong Pan is looking for 4 strong days to follow to help shore it up:

Plenty of whipsaw to watch for:

Also looking at the 200-day MAs (my preferred bounce level):

Richard Lehman of sums it nicely at the beginning (my emphasis)

2/6 -- Friday's drubbing reaffirmed the larger downtrend I've been referring to for the last week or two. I thought we might hit the upper purple channel line on the Dow before collapsing like we did, but in retrospect, the small caps all hit their upper lines perfectly on Feb 3/4. Anyway, it pays to remember that in a downtrend, the surprises are on the downside. And the short term trend is now unmistakable.

Now, most charts hit their lower short term purple lines on Friday before rallying. (A few actually exceeded their original lines to the downside and have since been adjusted.) That resulted in a healthy bounce into the close. That bounce could continue, but I would view it as a countertrend trading bounce rather than a bottom for this move.The reason I say that is that the longer term uptrends have clearly broken and the green lines off the March lows are likely the next major support area. What may happen, though is that the small caps get there first (the QQQQ could actually get there soon), and then the large caps, having lagged on the decline, may reverse before actually hitting. But that bottom has not yet unfolded.

The issue here is as clearly the dollar as it was the dollar on the way up. The bottom line: the dollar trade trumps fundamentals! The dollar may hit the upper line at 80-81, but is still in an uptrend. Gold oil and risk sectors are taking a whack, and seeing that, people are understandably scared about remaining in equities too long. If the idea of a major US company going down wasn't scary enough, how about the idea that several major countries go belly up?

Daniel Millard of Danericselliottwaves outlines his bearish wave count for Small Caps:

Projections for 30-yr bond prices:

With little optimism for gold bugs:

Finally, a different approach from Francis Bussiere of for 10-min SPX

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