Monday, December 07, 2009

Weekly Review of Publishers' Charts

Gold took a pounding and the dollar strengthed, but markets were little swayed. What will this week bring?

Tony Caldaro of has posted EWT targets for S&P of 1,158 and 1,162; so is it too early to call a top? Might explain why he has not labelled in a major 'B' top for the 'ABC' correction (although had hinted at it in the past)

Yong Pan of Cobrasmarketview hasn't seen too many changes on market sentiment over the week.

But Monday likely to be weak (although most of the damage is done by the opening gap down)

Sell signal on Call-Put data?

A more bullish upside target for the S&P?

Resistance for the 30-min intraday SPY; 61% for downside break if converged 21/55-period EMAs play as resistance

Richard Lehman kicks off with a new upward channel with sideways patterns elsewhere

12/6 -- I added a chart on the US Dollar ( under 'D' right after the Dow charts). Could be a new move upward, but would need to break 77 to confirm that.

12/5 -- The short term scene shows small caps and SPX back in upchannels, while the Dow tends to look more like a sideways channel. So while a brief turn in the dollar has spooked the gold and oil players, equities are hanging in there quite well. This jives with the long term picture that has seen large caps reach the three-year downtrend line and the 50% retracement level -- events that should at least cause a pause in the action if not worse.

The action also fits well with the economic scenario, which by some measures has shown improvement, but which remains highly unclear for 2010. Add to that the usual end-of-year hesitance to lock in a tax liability by taking gains this month and you have the makings of a volatile see-saw market perhaps into the beginning of 2010.

Of particular note in the long term picture is that the small caps have penetrated the downtrend line from 2007-8 already and have retested and are heading higher. That forms a strong likelihood that the large guys will ultimately follow suit. In addition, since nothing has broken any significant long term trendlines to the downside, the trends remain intact, and sideways action in that context becomes a stall until the next upturn.

12/3 -- Another assault on 10,500 ends up retreating just as the long term charts predict. But the initial spike upward and subsequent end-of-day nose-dive muddies the short term picture. The small caps and sector indexes broke upward before retreating, and that break -- even though only at the mini channel level -- suggests an upward mini may now be in progress. Unfortunately, the data do not yet provide enough to points to draw a new blue upward mini yet, so I haven't drawn one.

Joe summarises the week that was; jobs data was the news of the week.

The dollar chart went 'wonky' after it broke - regained - then broke 80 support again. Are we seeing a relief rally or a genuine attempt at a dollar rally? What will the dollar index do at 80?

Dow and S&P at 50% retracement:

Is there still juice in the tank for financials? A measured move target off the head-and-shoulder pattern could take it all the way to the 50% retracement ($21.22)?

Michael Eckert's of S&P fanline break on the 15-min chart:

Finally, Robert New of TheInformedTrader simplifies it down to a rising wedge; currently at resistance, so soon to be at support?

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