Saturday, October 31, 2009

Weekly Stock Market Commentary:

First real damage done to the indices in a quite a while. It's not unusual for sharp counter moves in a well established trend to snap back to former levels - but seasonal factors may prevent this from happening here. Fib retracements are looking a good bet for a downside target with the S&P showing clustered price across its fib range of 835-939.

Tech took the harder hit with the Nasdaq 100 down almost 5% with a bull trap

A degree of similiarity between now and early 2007 in the Bullish Percents

One thing in favour of a snap back rally is the Percentage of Nasdaq Stocks above the 50-day MA - it's close to oversold

The Russell 2000 was perfectly pegged by resistance with a new MACD trigger 'sell' to boot - the first index to do so on the weekly chart.

So - all-in-all - it was the first week of significance weakness in a while. The next bounce will likely be jumped upon by shorts. Indices 20-day MAs are likely to be attacked aggressively by shorts.

The de-Santa rally?

Dr. Declan Fallon, Senior Market Technician, the free stock alerts, stock charts, watchlist, multi-currency portfolio manager and strategy builder website. Forex data available too.