Saturday, October 10, 2009

Weekly Market Commentary: Resistance Holds for S&P and Russell 2000

The frustration continued for bears as new weekly highs diverged to supporting technicals. For the S&P and Russell 2000 this also meant resistance was a lingering issue.

Divergences remain but there is at least a breakout in play for the Nasdaq

The Percentage of Nasdaq Stocks above the 50-day MA is behaving very much like it did at the start of 2007 - not a good omen over the long term but bullish enough for the near term:

The NYSE Summation index also went with a stochastic 'sell' break.

Is this a case of once bitten, twice shy? The indices are setting up in a way very similar to 2007. On the plus side, the current rally could last well into 2010; on the down side, the next move down could be substantial. But whatever happens, a repeat of 2008 is unlikely - so the next move down could be slow and painful.

Whatever happens, it's hard to be a buyer at these levels, but shorting remains a losers game (me included!).

Dr. Declan Fallon, Senior Market Technician, the free stock alerts, stock charts, watchlist, multi-currency portfolio manager and strategy builder website. Forex data available too.