Monday, March 16, 2009

Weekly Stock Charts review from Publishers

After last week's hiatus what's on the menu for this week after the (rare) gains.

Yong Pan opens with a bearish short term outlook. His sentiment show a mix of red (bearish) and blue (neutral) signals. Intermediate term more bullish than bearish.

I still view the VIX has been remarkably complacent since the start of the year. Look at Peter's VIX channel to see how 'quiet' it has been:

Friday's doji not warming to anyone

Peter notes the 'buy' on the weekly, but these big white candlesticks nearly always retrace in the entirety.

Maurice has put a copyright warning on his work so I won't be covering his analysis from here on unless he wants inclusion. You may need to bookmark the link so you can track him. His charts are always worth a look.

The commentary below is copyright material. Any reproduction without permission is prohibited and violaters will be prosecuted to the full extent of the law.

Richard Lehman has kept with his narrow upward channels for the indices; but these appear too tight to be sustainable. Dow break of 7,200 looks favoured.

3/13 -- Short term channels continued Friday with no breaks on the major averages yet, though momentum has expectedly waned some now that they are up 10% off the lows. The channels (which I am assuming are minichannels for the moment) are fairly narrow, so a break could easily happen in an hour or on an opening. The first resistance levels on the long term charts has now been hit as the DJIA, RUT and SPX all hit the upper red mini on their one-year charts. At the sector level, XLF has broken sideways. I'd say the odds now favor a sideways or slightly lower move on the majors as well, and then the potential for more upside after that. If this is the 'A' wave back up, then it should take on a 3-wave form.

3/12 -- Wow. The channel pointed up toward 7200, but I figured that was awfully ambitious. Nonetheless, here we are and the short term channels are all completely intact. At any point, we may break to form the second leg of this move, but the first leg will determine the ultimate potential. So far so good. Some long term mini channel reistance may exist here, but ultimately, the move has more room to run on the upside.

3/11 -- Today was a positive follow-up to yesterday's move in my view. An orderly sideways movement is a very good scenario as it does not exhaust itself to quickly and remains in trend. I now suspect, though, that this little upswing is the first leg of something larger. That's positive for the next couple of weeks perhaps, but also says that these blue minis will likely end soon and yield to a small downward mini to create a larger, flatter upchannel. Let's see if we get another bounce off the lower blue line first.

Joe Reed puts his weekly summary up for review

Interesting call on the financial bear ETF (FAZ)

The Double Top is ugly:

Although Micheal Winfree has an interesting Bullish Piercing pattern for a (still possible?) double bottom:

Dr. Declan Fallon, Senior Market Technician, the free stock alerts, market alerts and stock charts website