Tuesday, September 16, 2008

Bad.. could have been worse... may yet be...

Some indices fared better than others. The NYSE is undoing much of the hard work it did when it broke past 2000 highs; a test of those highs at 7,202 would look the most logical area to seek support.

As TraderMike noted, there is still much work to do before markets see a bottom, although the T2108 indicator he watches is a few points shy of hitting the 20% mark typical of oversold bottoms. The rich NYSE Summation Index remains a concern however, but at least the VIX closed over 30 (and may gap higher today to confirm at least a top in this indicator):

The $TICK capitulated (a short term bottom)

For a broader market recovery we will need to keep an eye on Tech, an early leadership group in a market bottom. Small cap participation will also be important to pull the broader markets higher.

Yesterday's NASDAQ action was unusual in there was no major violation of 2008 lows, although it did manage this on a closing basis (which in many ways is worse). Unfrotunately, the Nasdaq Summation Index, like the comparable NYSE one, is closer to overbought than oversold and this means no bottom - yet.

It's a tricky situation; the short term time frames are oversold, the intermediate time frames may not be, but the long terms must be pretty darn close to a respectable bottom.

Dollar-cost-average and don't be afraid is perhaps best bet forward.

Dr. Declan Fallon, Senior Market Technician, Zignals.com the free stock alerts, market alerts and stock charts website