Fallon Financial Commentary: Watch Dow for leads Get the latest market commentary and stock trading ideas from Declan Fallon

Friday was a whopping hit on the averages, but the Dow really took it on the chin. The Dow Bullish Percents dropped to 40%, leaving them at the 38% retracement line for the Mar-May advance. Another few points lost and a complete retrace to March lows is likely.

Although the Dow is hardly representative of the market as a whole it does give an inkling as to what might happen for its cousin the S&P. The Dow is precariously close to another run on January-March lows; with my earlier measured move target of 12,055 likely a day or two away.