Saturday, December 08, 2007 Weekly review

It has been over a month since I was last able to do a review of the weeks action as per the Stockcharters. There has been no shortage of water under the bridge since.

Eric Muathe
has a big outlook for the markets. He is looking for 25,000 in the Dow by 2011 based on the following:

With a Nasdaq at 6,000:

Dr. Joe opens with his usual point summary. He looks to be calling a bottom in the market:

His AMEX chart is interesting for the lack of trading volume since mid-2006 to the present day:

No surprises for his S&P and Nasdaq 100 chart - both of which show a November bottom. Currently, the Nasdaq 100 has reached overbought full stochastics, while slow stochastics for the S&P still have room upside.

His Nasdaq Summation Index shows the current (December) bottom nicely with respect to the Nasdaq and Qs:

Ted Burge shows current resistance for the Dow very cleanly:

But for the Nasdaq there doesn't appear to be much in the way of resistance up to 2,818 (other than the 50-day MA):

The semiconductors also look to have a bit of breathing space up to the 50-day MA and/or 456 resistance:

Maurice Walker
has a unique chart showing The Fan Principle at work for the S&P. A major move is only a step away:

Broadening the Fan principle to include Market Breadth lends further weight to the bulls cause:

With the S&P Bullish percents the icing on the cake:

Although Fibonacci retracements suggest the third time may not be a charm:

He provides his own spin on the Jobs report:

12/7 The jobs report came in showing that the nonfarm payrolls added 94,000 jobs in November, as the unemployment rate remained steady at 4.7. Enough jobs were added to keep the unemployment rate from rising but the 94 K jobs were a sharp decline from the 170 K jobs that were gained in October. The report shows reasonable growth, but economist were looking for at least 100 K jobs. This gives the Fed a reason to continue lowering rates.

Now those that keep telling us that we are in a recession, can't be happy with today's job reports. So here is a study on jobs I came across that they might like. This particular study, which I have summarized is called 'who does the work'. Some of the figures are a bit dated. But its the kind scenario that those who are suffering from recession obsession are forecasting, who think no one is out there working.

The population of the U.S.A. at the time of the study was 270 million. Of that 270 million, 98 Million are over the age 62. That leaves 172 million left to do the work. Of the 172 million Americans left, 92 million are under the age of 20. So that leaves 80 million left to really do the work. Of the 80 Million Americans left, 29 Million are unemployed. That leaves 51 million Americans to do the work. Of that 51 million, 4 million are in the armed forces. So that leaves 47 million Americans to do the work. But of that 47 million left to do the work, 24 million work for the Federal Government, and we know they don't do the work. So that leaves 23 million Americans to do the work. Now of the 23 million left, 18 million work for State and Local Government. That leaves 5 million Americans left to do the work. Of the 5 million Americans left to do the work, 4 million Americans are either in jail or in federal penitentiaries . That leaves 1 million left to do the work, but 999,998 are in hospitals, metal institutions or insane asylums. That leaves 2 Americans to do the work. That's me and you, and quite frankly I wish you would do something.

Richard Lehman had this to say of the week:

12/8 -- Our bounce continues, aided by a strong performance in the tech sector. In the long term picture, the bounce looks healthy enough to continue, but should be due for at least some kind of pullback to establish where the lower channel and minichannel lines are. Short term uptrends are also still intact but as you can see from this Dow chart, the momentum is waning a bit. And on the QQQQ chart you can see it approaching a short term resistance line.

The Fed will take action this week on another rate cut. That will mean some posturing in advance (what I think most of this move has been about really) and some crazy gyrations around the announcement itself. Keep an eye on the short term charts.

12/6 -- The bounce continued nicely today all around today as this up move has become a full-fledged short term trend channel, not just a mini. The small caps have moved back into short term uptrends, BUT they are at the high side of their channels now and will hit resistance very shortly (See Naz and QQQQ). So a little retracement could be at hand.

If you read the article by Pearlstein from the Washington Post yesterday comparing this to 1929 in scope of crisis, you won't feel too good about the prospects for 2008, but let's see how that all plays out.

Here is Lehman's Dow chart referenced at the start (head to his Stockchart list to get the complete chart list):

Robert New shows the longer term (bullish) trend for the S&P:

Finally, Jack Chan does his usual good watch on the commodity sector; interesting call for the Gold and Silver Index (Buy):