Saturday, November 03, 2007 Weekly review

After last week's volatile session what had the stockcharters to say about it? It should be noted, only a sample of the works of the following posters is presented, by following the appropriate link one can get further details on their research and opinion.

Dr. Joe
heads with his week in summary:

Based on historical trends, Dr. Joe is looking for a Dow rally:

While seeing a top too?

Although his S&P retail chart is interesting - but one should ignore the over dependence on momentum indicators (all of which the same thing - you only need one Joe!)

The Ted lines are seeing support for the Nasdaq 100 (and Nasdaq - just):

and lo-and-behold, the semiconductors too:

Maurice Walker commented on the candlestick hammers:

11/2 Commentary: Investors didn't know what to do with more optimistic economic data that was reported today, as the nonfarm payrolls increased by 166,000 jobs in October. After a choppy day of back and forth action, prices ultimately settled closing modestly higher, producing bullish Hammer candlesticks at these price levels on the indices. Which produced a long tail at the end of the candlestick, which tells us that buyers are coming back into the market, and that comes as no surprise. But our trendlines remained in tact.

Prices dropped just above our key support area on the Dow at 13,390 and on the S&P 500 at 1489. Which is the start of minute wave 1 on the 60 minute charts. The wave we are currently in, minute wave 2, cannot move below those levels according to wave theory. Incidently, we moved slightly below the 13,471 area on the Dow, so I had to revise my count. You can view it on the Dow 60 minute chart directly below (4th chart below).

With our recent push lower we have witnessed the construction of wave 2 in the 60 minute timeframe. The bears were out in full force this week on the financial channels. The institutions launched a scathing attack on the market that was well orchestrated, as they attepted to drive prices lower and shake out weak longs. So the bad news bears presented us with another buying opportunity today. I continue to remain bullish, as the move lower has now set up positive divergence on the MACD-Histogram on the daily indices. I believe that wave 3, will push us higher in order to complete the Cup w/ Handle patterns on the Dow & S&P 500. The 60 minute charts are ostensively oversold and poised to recoup losses. I have posted another commentary on the economy directly below. Please vote to keep us accessible, near the top of the public chart list. In order to prevent automated voting, stockcharts now has you confirm a code while voting.

Follow his link to get more of his commentary and see his charts.

He has a good chart combining a rising channel with a possible cup-and-handle pattern; if true then Friday's lows cannot be violated:

The S&P is doing something similar:

It is interesting to see he has marked the start of a fifth wave for the Nasdaq:

Robert New has marked a couple of negative divergences in his 2-year Nasdaq chart:

Finally, Richard Lehman sees troubles ahead:

11/3 -- Friday's bounce took a few of the short term charts out of their steep downtrends, but overall this picture still looks negative. Last weeks drop was likley just the first leg, judging by its steep narrow character. Longer term charts show the large caps half way down toward one-year support lines and small caps dropping off their upper lines to kead in similar direction. Just check out the Dow daily/one-year chart for the stark resemblance to August's decline.

11/1 -- Today was all over at the open. Short term breaks on the Dow, RUT and SPX occurred early on and just avalanched. The Naz and QQQ had big down moves but were higher up in wide ST trend channels, so they did not break...yet. But you can see the damage on longer term charts. There are varying support lines that can come into play here given different time frames and indices. I'm still focusing on the Dow heading toward its daily support line at 1280 or so, given the dramatic similarity between this move and the one in August.

10/31 -- Believe it or not, today's wild ride actually made visible a larger upchannel on the Dow and SPX in which everything fits quite well. The crazy low immediately after the Fed announcement came right down to a lower support line and bounced smartly upward. The Naz and QQQQ are rocketing upward enough to accelerate existing uptrends. We're still toppy for the intermediate term but haven't broken yet.

10/30 -- Today's little decline took the Dow precisely down to its short term trend support line and actually broke the SPX and XAU. Others rolled over but remained well within their short term uptrends. The longer term charts are still very toppy and the multi-month trend lines on daily charts like QQQQ would have to change slope upward in order to accommodate much more upside on that index. Tomorrow is likely to be volatile, but once the Fed move is digested, the trend will be evident and I give it better odds of being down than up, though a spike upward initially is certainly possible.