Sunday, March 11, 2007 Weekly review

The "Dead-Cat-Bounce" is close to completion. What did the Stockcharters have to say about last week? First impressions - most have adopted a wait-and-see approach with little in the way of new updates. I have highlighted some of the changes and additions to the following lists:

Joe Reed opened up with some general comments:

He has an interesting chart for the S&P showing the bounce from retracement - the market is looking good for a move down to the 50% and/or 61.8% level.

And has a similar chart for the Dow - again, watch Fibonacci levels:

Ted Burge opened with this:

Mar 9, 2007! Resistance until proven otherwise! Net 7 buy signals Friday in the USA, but increasing demand to X's. Reversals to X's are NOT the same as BUY but if it continues we will see the evidence in the nightly report on my site.

Rally means from support to resistance! New support is a 'run'.

It is all at

And included comments from contributor, Todd:

March 9th! Great comments from TODD our full time Chicago trader.

Great time to review trading strategy/plan. How many have followed their trading plan? How many executing the strategy? With gap opens and price movements good time to evaluate what your doing. Is it working or are you? Are you concerned about what the market is doing or your trading strategy? The market has tested the best in the past two weeks. Staying with what works is key. Market will obliterate your opinions quickly and enough to call the Psychiatrist. Review your trading plan and how you traded. Earn and learn!

You learn a lot more from your loses versus wins. So easy to jump in and hope for the best and hope volatility move price in your favor.

I have support and resistance on every chart from the 1 minute through the weekly. This keeps everything in perspective showing indicating before hand where price presents opportunity. Important as a trader to review what you are doing have done for consistency.

The trading plan makes money not the market. Money is the by product of your trading plan and execution thereof.

All of my preperation takes place while the market is closed allowing sound judgement versus emotional rollercoaster during these volatile times during trading hours. Ted's charts provide excellent resource. Example look at USO the 20 day ma textbook example of support. It is that easy when discipline and patience exercised.


Although I have not listed any of Ted'c charts, they can be found by following his link. Plenty of scrappy action illustrated.

Matthew Frailey shows an interesting bottom in the S&P bullish percents:

With another one for the NYSE:

And again for the Nasdaq:

Robert New is looking for a move in the Russell 2000 down to c720:

Richard Lehman had this to say about last week:

3/10 -- The patterns in the major large and small cap indices are actually quite similar, lending that much more confidence to them. A number of charts exhibited perfect line touches to their short term channel support lines, and began bouncing upward on Friday. That says the mini-rally should continue into this coming week.

I wouldn't let this sway you from the longer term picture, however. This little rally has all the earmarks of a countertrend move, and when the decline continues, it could get ugly real fast. I'm playing it very cautiously and using this blip to exit long positions and prepare for the next down move.

3/8 -- The small caps and large caps are in unison now and pretty much all the indices now show upward channels or minichannels. This is, afterall, very much expected from the longer term picture. Another sell-off after this countertrend move is also indicated by the long term charts, and these little upchannels bear that out by being narrow and shallow. When things break down from these minichannels, I think we can expect another sizeable sell-off.

3/7 -- Today's failure on the upside may be very important. The small caps NEVER BROKE their downward short term minichannels, and the large caps broke, but it now appears they may have simply changed slope and may ALSO REMAIN IN A DOWN CHANNELS. We could see a bona fide break upward soon, but until we do, these channels are still heading down folks!

Gold is in a min uptrend and the XLE had a big up day for a while before giving a bunch back.

Newcomer on the most popular list, Asher Pinto, has an interesting chart for the Qs:

With a similar look at the SPYs:

So the general consenus appears to be watch the Fibonacci retracements as market internals move very close to indicating a "Buy" soon.