Collective2 update

I use my Collective2 portfolio has a "real world" example of using the stocks featured in my newsletter and blog in combination with a suggested money management strategy. I have marked on the hashed line - which represents the S&P - the degree of market exposure as recommended to my newsletter Subscribers. The solid line reflects the returns of my picks with a little extra fine tuning to my suggested stop prices (all trades carry a fixed stop price).

I was looking for aggressive positions last summer when market internals were oversold, easing those recommendations towards a cash conservative stance in mid-November. The flattening of the equity curve and the small losses taken in December and February represented this 'cash-friendly' portfolio - which also meant I missed out on the Santa-rally and New Year follow up. The flip side was no impact from last weeks sell off.



I'm watching currently watching internals for new oversold conditions and an opportunity to go more aggressive into stocks.



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Upcoming "Death Cross" for Russell 2000 ($IWM)

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There was some modest buying today from the open, but volume was light and markets are below trading range support established during the latter part of 2024. It's hard to see where the buyers are going to come from given the chaos of Trump. I should add, I listened to Josh Brown's The Compound podcast and he showed an interesting chart of market returns in April-May in the year following a strong return in markets; in essence, selling to pay capital gains tax. Given the precarious nature of markets, and the possibility for this seasonal factor to play out, it's likely we have a couple more months of downward action before value buyers return. If we look at individual markets, the Russell 2000 ($IWM) is looking like the first to signal a long term shift in favor of bears with an upcoming "Death Cross" between the 50-day MA and 200-day MA - perhaps completing before the end of the week. Technicals are net bearish and the volume trend has collapsed since the st...
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Friday's gap downs bring indices close to support. Semiconductor Index at 200-day MA.

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Friday's big gaps lower have the potential to become breakdown gaps, but for now, the near term oversell has for a possible move into the gap price vacuum. The index most likely to achieve this in the coming days is the Russell 2000 ($IWM). The Russell 2000 ($IWM) finished with a neutral doji, just above its 50-day MA and in a thick band of support between $207.50 and $210 marked by the summer swing highs. Technicals have followed price action with new 'sell' triggers in On-Balance-Volume and ADX, but intermediate term stochastics haven't reached the mid-line that is typical support in bull markets. Aggressive bulls can look for a move to test the underside of the 20-day MA. The S&P was unable to hold its 50-day MA on Friday's open, and instead found itself toying with the May swing high. More significant support is likely to be found around 5,265, so if there is an undercut of Friday's low then this will be the next port of call. More concer...
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"Dead Cat" Bounce or Something Better?

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