There was some modest buying today from the open, but volume was light and markets are below trading range support established during the latter part of 2024. It's hard to see where the buyers are going to come from given the chaos of Trump. I should add, I listened to Josh Brown's The Compound podcast and he showed an interesting chart of market returns in April-May in the year following a strong return in markets; in essence, selling to pay capital gains tax. Given the precarious nature of markets, and the possibility for this seasonal factor to play out, it's likely we have a couple more months of downward action before value buyers return. If we look at individual markets, the Russell 2000 ($IWM) is looking like the first to signal a long term shift in favor of bears with an upcoming "Death Cross" between the 50-day MA and 200-day MA - perhaps completing before the end of the week. Technicals are net bearish and the volume trend has collapsed since the st...

There was some modest buying today from the open, but volume was light and markets are below trading range support established during the latter part of 2024. It's hard to see where the buyers are going to come from given the chaos of Trump. I should add, I listened to Josh Brown's The Compound podcast and he showed an interesting chart of market returns in April-May in the year following a strong return in markets; in essence, selling to pay capital gains tax. Given the precarious nature of markets, and the possibility for this seasonal factor to play out, it's likely we have a couple more months of downward action before value buyers return. If we look at individual markets, the Russell 2000 ($IWM) is looking like the first to signal a long term shift in favor of bears with an upcoming "Death Cross" between the 50-day MA and 200-day MA - perhaps completing before the end of the week. Technicals are net bearish and the volume trend has collapsed since the st...

It was an interesting finish to Friday; some indices successfully tested their 20-day MAs - others did not. Pure technical traders could have taken a pop on Friday in the Russell 2000 ($IWM), and equal-weighted S&P ($SPXEW) at their 200-day MAs, knowing that other lead indices were undercutting their 200-day MAs, but it would be a big ask in the age of Trump (unless you were insider trading). Well, markets reacted positively to the announcement that Trump wasn't going to bomb Iran's energy infrastructure, but over the course of the day the majority of market participants didn't believe him, and sellers returned in force. The Russell 2000 ($IWM) managed a picture perfect tag of the 200-day MA on Friday, but on Monday, the higher volume accumulation racked up by the close of business came with a sizable inverse spike.

Aside from Bitcoin, we are not seeing too much technical damage, but we are seeing a pick up in the volume of seeling. Moving averages will be key in the near term before we have to start looking at horizontal price support and swing lows. The Russell 2000 ($IWM) undercut its 20-day MA, but hasn't yet challenged support defined by the December swing high. The MACD is on a 'sell' trigger and +DI/DI and On-Balance-Volume will likely do the same Monday if selling continues. Friday's selling registered as confirmed distribution, which is a worry for Monday. It's the strongest index, but if this falls under $257 we would likely be looking at a new trading range bound by $245 and $270 that could last a number of months.