Thursday, November 03, 2016

Indices Approaching 200-day MA

Yesterday's selling continued with Small Caps again taking the bulk of the heat.

The Russell 2000 is fast approaching its 200-day MA which should be a buying opportunity.  An overshoot of this moving average in June lead to a 3-month rally, can lightning strike again? Technicals are already oversold, so there is little guidance on offer here.


The S&P is also getting close to its 200-day MA but the index hasn't experienced the rout which the Russell 2000 has endured. Relative performance has increased despite the selling which will continue to attract risk-averse money. With the election coming to an end next week markets are positioning themselves for the result. Given what's come before, a 'buy the news' rally would appear the most likely. Obama's election generated a short-term sell off in 2012, but this ultimately marked a significant trading low. Shorts should be looking to take profits.


The Nasdaq finished the day at 5,100 support. It was the only index to register a distribution day, and the only index to finish at a support level. Those looking to trade pre-market may find an opportune long position.


Tomorrow is a chance to start looking at a short profit-taking switch to a long position. Watch for an intraday spike low driven by an acceleration lower and an equally fast recovery.  The Nasdaq has the best set up for longs, but a spike low to 200-day MAs for the Russell 2000 and S&P would also be attractive as a place for GTC 'buy' orders. Should the latter fail, and prices continue to head lower, then the next cross above the 200-day MA would be the 'buy' trigger.

You've now read my opinion, next read Douglas' blog.

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Dr. Declan Fallon is the Senior Market Technician for ChartDNA.com, and Product Development Manager for FirstDerivatives.com. I also trade on eToro and can be copied for free.
 
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