Wednesday, January 14, 2015

Decent Afternoon Recovery in S&P

It was looking tough for a while, but markets managed to claw back early afternoon losses. Bulls will be happy to see late afternoon buying which has the chance to follow through on Thursday morning (or premarket).

The S&P returned to neckline support, although troubles are likely to re-emerge when it gets back to 2,064. It's not a particularly attractive long here, but shorts will have been repelled for a while. There is chance of a double bottom, which will require a break of the 2,060 neckline to confirm. Note that any such break would also negate the bearish head-and-shoulder reversal


The Nasdaq started was able to defend 4,600; the swing high from September (which was briefly violated in December). Fib retracements are still on offer, which could form part of a downward channel. Today's finish placed the index in the middle of the downward channel, and could go either way.


The Russell 2000 is also range bound inside its handle. However, it did manage to finish with higher close versus its open. This remains neutral on a daily time frame. More aggressive traders might use the swing low at 1,153 as a risk level for a long play back to 1,221.


The Nasdaq 100 is working against 4,117 support, with additional support at 4,090; although its questionable whether this could hold out on another test.  The fact the last peak posted a lower high around 4,250 suggests new lows are on the way.


The Semiconductor index will also have a key day tomorrow as it's positioned at important 656 support.  However, this has the look of a failed follow through, which is disappointing given the great rally from the Island Reversal. Any weakness from the start of business tomorrow could open the selling floodgates. The 200-day MA is the next logical target.


For tomorrow, look to the Tech and Semiconductor Indices. A weak start could embolden shorts to take these indices quickly lower.

You've now read my opinion, next read Douglas' and Jani's.

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Dr. Declan Fallon is the Senior Market Technician and Community Director for Zignals.com, and Product Development Manager for ActivateClients.com. You can read what others are saying about Zignals on Investimonials.com.

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