Monday, October 13, 2014

Third Big Sell Off in a Row.

The S&P took another big hit to the face as sellers rushed to the exits in late afternoon trading. The 200-day MA was barely noticed on the way down and the August swing low cleanly sliced.  Technicals are oversold and volume is in line with a capitulation, although I would be more comfortable calling a bottom once the index is at least 10% below its 200-day MA (which is 1,714).


The Nasdaq did tag the 200-day MA intraday, but was unable to regain the 200-day MA. The next support level is the April low, although anywhere inside the scrappy April-May congestion would probably act as a sufficient test of support.


The Russell 2000 may actually be ready for a bounce. Today's inverse hammer marks a bullish turn as other indices struggled. The index is at channel support, and there is a sharp improvement in relative performance to Large Caps and Tech.  A stop on a loss of today's low is a relatively low risk play given the volatility. Watch for a bullish morning star (starting with a gap higher).


No surprise to see another big loss in the previously quite resilient Dow.  It had already undercut the 200-day MA on Friday's close, and broke key support level connecting early summer action and the August swing low.


Finally, the Semiconductor Index continued its rout with a 2% loss, following a brief incursion into Friday's action.


As for tomorrow, bulls will probably be fearful, but the Russell 2000 does look ready for a decent bounce. Shorts will be looking at overhead MAs and/or support to build positions.


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Dr. Declan Fallon is the Senior Market Technician and Community Director for Zignals.com, and Product Development Manager for ActivateClients.com. You can read what others are saying about Zignals on Investimonials.com.

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