Saturday, February 02, 2013

Weekly Market Commentary: Rally Keeps on Rolling

I thought at some point last week we would see a top in the market, but Friday put paid to that.  Across the board gains (on lighter volume) meant new highs for Large and Small Cap indices. Tech indices even gave some indication of breaking from a month long consolidation.  The real star on Friday was the semiconductor index.  It neatly took out the Bearish Evening Star, but is coming up against channel resistance.


While last week may have proved me wrong, current market breadth doesn't change the thesis for a swing high in the near future (but again, this is unlikely to be the end of the cyclical bull rally).  The New Highs/Lows are at extremes consistent with a market high.


The Percentage of Nasdaq Stocks above the 50-day MA lost a little ground despite the gain in the parent index.


The Nasdaq is very close to breaking resistance, as Large and Small Caps have already achieved. Technicals bullish and strong buying over the week registers as accumulation.


And the Nasdaq Bullish Percents did break resistance.


The Russell 2000 added almost a percent, although the rate of gain has slowed compared to prior weeks.


The S&P was able to do likewise


So will this week offer the swing high? Markets are heavily overbought, but this in itself is not a reason for an immediate top. The question for this week is whether the Nasdaq will make it past 3,200. The breakout in the Nasdaq Bullish Percents is important, and the Percentage of Nasdaq Stocks above 50-day MA was already falling by the time of the March 2011 top. Therefore, the groundwork is there to support a push beyond 3,200.

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Dr. Declan Fallon is the Senior Market Technician and Community Director for Zignals.com. You can read what others are saying about Zignals on Investimonials.com.

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