Monday, December 13, 2010

Weekly Review of Stockcharts.com charts: Melt Up

Little change on last week with rallies pushing ever higher. EWT Followers are looking at clear fifth waves which likely means a scrappy first half of 2011 to follow.

Anthony Caldaro of Elliot Wave Lives On has a next target of 1,261 for the S&P.


The Dow is lagging a little, but should follow suit; note cup-and-handle on 60-minute chart.


Richard Lehman of Trend Channel Magic has firm green rising channels in place, even if he himself thinks Tech and Small Caps are looking risky.

12/12 -- Gold and oil are correcting. India and China have both had 10% corrections. Meanwhile, US stocks march on. We may finish out the year on firm footing as institutions load up for year-end window dressing, but the charts are getting very toppy again -- particularly techs and small caps. Ben's buying binge may keep things from dropping too dramatically, but either we flatten out and get more choppy soon or we will end up in bubble territory again (if not there already).

12/8 -- Gold and oil broke short term trends to the downside today. That means they will probably drift lower over the next week or so. Stocks are thus far holdiong up, but still near their upper short term lines and vulnerable to additional consoliodation -- particularly the small caps.

12/5 -- Short term charts are in upchannels again now, but at the upper lines and ripe for a pullback very soon. The small caps (like RUT) and sectors like XLE have accelerated and are getting way ahead of themselves. The dollar's drop late last week propelled some things to unsustainable heights. December may be net positive, but don't expect a smooth ride.

12/2 -am- The market has now taversed from the lower short term channel line touch on Nov 16th to an upper line touch. The Dow has broken upward, but thus far SPX has just come up to its line. This COULD be the first leg of a new short term uptrend, but that is not yet confirmed.

11/30 -- Small caps broke today, adding weight to the continued correction argument

11/29 -- The small caps came right to support on short term minis and bounced. The large caps overshot (i.e. broke) their minichannels before bouncing, so there is no clear signal yet that we're finished on the downside.

Yong Pan of Cobrasmarketview shows some bearish creep in the intermediate time frame, but the market is still in neutral mode - which means what's in motion is likely to stay in motion - and this means higher prices ahead.


His mechanical trading strategy is currently long.


Treasury Yields looking very frothy on the short term.


Anthony D Allyn of Elliottwavehound.com is sticking with a bearish count on the 60 minute S&P time frame.


And Russell 2000


With his doom-and-gloom prognosis for the Dow not undone yet.


Michael Eckert of EWTrendsandcharts.blogpsot.com has now gone for a mildly bullish upward scenario on the S&P as part of a larger ABC correction.


Fifth wave rally on the 60-minute timeframe with a negative outlook.


Finally, with Robert New of TheInformedTrader.com we should watch for divergence in the RSI.


With other indices, like the Wilshire 5000, also tagging the RSI 70 zone for a second time


But keep an eye on this resistance level - its inching above it, but can it clear it? January looks like it will be the decisive month.


The melt-up continues...

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