Saturday, August 14, 2010

Weekly Market Commentary: Bulls Blink?

With another week of my vacation left it was all go for the markets. The semiconductor index was first to blink as the 200-day MA broke on the daily before the lead indices tanked the next day. The semiconductor index went one step further and crashed through trading range support; lead indices remain range bound but I suspect they will follow suit next week unless bulls can create a bear trap in the semiconductor index.

($SOX)

via StockCharts.com

Weekly charts are looking more ominous for bulls. In the S&P note how stochastics are some way from turning oversold. Don't expect 61.8% Fib retracement to hold as support as it did earlier this year.

($SPX)

via StockCharts.com

Same story for the Nasdaq. Only consolation is the low volume.

Nasdaq

via StockCharts.com

Nasdaq Bullish Percents showing lots of room to the downside if last year's lows are to be tested (although a brief drop sub-40 may be enough).

($BPCOMPQ)

via StockCharts.com

The confirmed buy in the Nasdaq Percentage of Stocks Above the 50-day MA may end up to be a bull trap as index and supporting indicators fail to touch resistance/overbought conditions.

($NAA50R)

via StockCharts.com

The Nasdaq Summation Index may have had a case of bad timing. Friday marked a confirmed 'buy' although the index itself is in the center of neutral territory; half-glass full types will view this as room to the upside, half-glass empty types will see this as plenty of room to the downside.

AAAA Nasdaq Summation Index (Ratio Adjusted) ($NASI): "

via StockCharts.com

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Markets look like they want to move lower; how much lower is the question. When market breadth indicators regain oversold territory will be the time to look for buying opportunities.

Back to my vacation (after I get some more trading jobs posted)

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