Popular posts from this blog

Upcoming "Death Cross" for Russell 2000 ($IWM)

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There was some modest buying today from the open, but volume was light and markets are below trading range support established during the latter part of 2024. It's hard to see where the buyers are going to come from given the chaos of Trump. I should add, I listened to Josh Brown's The Compound podcast and he showed an interesting chart of market returns in April-May in the year following a strong return in markets; in essence, selling to pay capital gains tax. Given the precarious nature of markets, and the possibility for this seasonal factor to play out, it's likely we have a couple more months of downward action before value buyers return. If we look at individual markets, the Russell 2000 ($IWM) is looking like the first to signal a long term shift in favor of bears with an upcoming "Death Cross" between the 50-day MA and 200-day MA - perhaps completing before the end of the week. Technicals are net bearish and the volume trend has collapsed since the st...
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Weekly Review of Stockcharts.com Publisher Charts

US Futures are suggesting a bright start for Monday so with that what had the Stockcharters to say about last week?

We open with Richard Lehman of the Channelist. He talks above gains lasting another couple of day before things get toasty (he also plugs his new newseletter!).

6/20 -- First, Happy Fathers Day, fellow Dads!
Second, THE CHANNELIST NEWSLETTER is now available by subscription. The only way I can continue doing this much work is to charge a nominal amount. Please go to www.Channelist.com for info and to subscribe. This week's letter will be available today.

Third, it looks like the markets could squeeze out another up day or two, but there is big resistance to going much further in both short and long term channels without a pull-back. Momentum is waning and stochastics are in or approaching overbought extremes. But there is a bullish long term case that says the entire correction is over -- I illustrate this possibility in the Channelist this weekend.

6/17 -- The last minute spurt by large caps is somewhat suspect since it wasn't widespread -- though it did keep the large caps in their blue minichannels. Expiration Friday could do almost anything, but I think the next move is down at the mini level.

6/16 -- The break of purple downtrends is solid now, but in the process, a number of indexes are getting toppy and will likely falter very soon. XLE and XLF are two to be careful of as they have hit upper short term lines. XAU may also be vulnerable to any little pullback in the price of gold.

6/15 -- Today certainly nailed the coffin on the purple short term downchannels. The blue minis chugged right along to the upside and even retested the purples before continuing upward. In most of the charts, we don't have the benefit of a good upside target in the short term -- but we do in the RUT. Drawn differently, the RUT didn't even break its purple yet, and that may give us an upside target (675-680 on the RUT).

Meanwhile long term channels still of course head down all over, but their widths and slpes are adjusting due to this push upward. The RUT looks good here also, as the purple on the one-year chart comes right off the flashcrash low and connects with two other bottoms.

Yong Pan of Cobrasmarketview.blogspot.com offers a still quite remarkable neutral picture.


Ad-hoc adjustment for mechanical trading system


Early indications for a 'Buy' Signal? Candlesticks would suggest more indecision though


Same indecision for the QQQQ


Michael Eckert of EWTrendsandcharts.blogspot.com offers two alternatives for the end of the 2nd wave (SPX 60-min).


Ted Burge of theTedlines.com highlights the battle in the NDX between 1,902 support atnd the 50-day MA.


Dr. Joe goes with his summary:


Retail index finding support


As volatility trends down from its peak (bullish for S&P)


Nasdaq Summation Index working on a new 'buy'


Finally, Robert New shows how the 50-week and 70-week EMAs continue to play as support (not just for the S&P, but Russell 2000 and Tech averages too)


We will see how Monday plays out for the markets...

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Popular posts from this blog

Upcoming "Death Cross" for Russell 2000 ($IWM)

Image
There was some modest buying today from the open, but volume was light and markets are below trading range support established during the latter part of 2024. It's hard to see where the buyers are going to come from given the chaos of Trump. I should add, I listened to Josh Brown's The Compound podcast and he showed an interesting chart of market returns in April-May in the year following a strong return in markets; in essence, selling to pay capital gains tax. Given the precarious nature of markets, and the possibility for this seasonal factor to play out, it's likely we have a couple more months of downward action before value buyers return. If we look at individual markets, the Russell 2000 ($IWM) is looking like the first to signal a long term shift in favor of bears with an upcoming "Death Cross" between the 50-day MA and 200-day MA - perhaps completing before the end of the week. Technicals are net bearish and the volume trend has collapsed since the st...
Read more

"Dead Cat" Bounce or Something Better?

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It's still a little too early to say, but the bounce is in play and "long" is the place to be. There is a huge amount of overhead resistance and the risk:reward remains tight with moves back to Thursday's lows well within expectations. For the S&P, I would be looking for a rally back to test the 200-day MA, or a fast-falling 20-day MA, whichever is the lowest. Real supply won't kick in until 5,700 is tested, and maybe it will have the juice to get to 5,775 before volume selling makes its presence felt. As the index makes this move I expect to see a decent On-Balance-Volume 'buy' signal, alongside what will be a weak MACD 'buy'; other technicals are likely to remain bearish.
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"Bull Traps" For S&P, Nasdaq and Bitcoin

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So, in one fell swoop, the S&P and Nasdaq undid all of the work of 2026 with nasty gaps lower. In the case of the Nasdaq, the ascending triangle breakout reversed into a breakdown with new 'sell' triggers in the MACD, On-Balance-Volume and +DI/-DI. The relative performance of the index to the Russell 2000 ($IWM) showed an acceleration lower after last year's declines. Only stochastics (momentum) is holding on. If one was to be more honest of what's happening, we are likely broadening out to a trading range and it will take a loss of 22K to really flag a concern for bulls. Things are a little more problematic for the S&P. There is a definite 'bull trap' in play following today's significant gap down. Volume rose in confirmed distribution, so this wasn't some fake out to get weak hands out of their positions. As with the Nasdaq, the twin lows of October/November at 6,550 carries greater significance, and we are still a long way from a test...
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