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Relief buying has potential for more

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Today's buying was able to erase much of yesterday's losses, although trading volume was below that of Monday. Given the declines in lead indices, what happened today has the potential to act as a swing low - it's just whether nearby 200-day MAs would not prove to be a better point for buyers to come in to support the indices.   The Nasdaq rallied from a prior support area - one which also corresponded to the July swing low. Technicals are net negative with a big swing against it when it comes to relative performance against the Russell 2000. 

Swing Low for Indices?

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Friday was an first attempt by bulls to build a swing low since peaking in early September. Lead indices finished with bullish candlesticks on oversold momentum indicators.  Volume was down on previous selling, so any follow through will need some confirmed accumulation - but Friday was a good start. The Nasdaq finished with a bullish hammer and is well placed for a follow through higher on Monday.  The key negative is the relative performance weakness of the index to the Russell 2000 and the fact this index is a long way from testing its 200-day MA. 

S&P pushes lower as Russell 2000 tags 200-day MA for a third time in two months

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The S&P followed through on its continuation pattern by delivering a solid red candlestick lower. Those big red candlesticks have also come with bearish distribution.  Next stop is the 200-day MA on net bearish technicals. 

Nasdaq breakdown follows that of S&P

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The Nasdaq finally gave in to the selling experienced by the S&P with a break through support defined by the July and August swing lows.  It came with a 'sell' trigger in On-Balance-Volume and an acceleration in the relative loss to the Russell 2000.  The next support level is the 200-day MA - a moving average which last saw a test in early 2020 when Covid first hit the headlines. It's hard to see buyers stepping in until we reach this moving average as there isn't a whole lot of alternative support to work with.

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