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Friday's gain Looks to Negate Thursday's Bearish Candlesticks

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Thursday had left bearish candlestick across the indices but Friday's gain was an attempt at least to eat into this supply. Buyers weren't able to completely negate the bearish implications of these candlesticks, but it was a good finish for bulls. The S&P has probably the best of it as it edged a close just above its 50-day MA, as On-Balance-Volume ticked back in favor of bulls. The higher close has done enough to close the breakdown gap from April and has stalled the reversal, but the swing high hasn't been challenged. 

Yesterday's Losses Reversed But Gaps Remain

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Bulls tried to reverse Tuesday's losses but weren't able to close the breakdown gaps. The topping patterns still look valid despite today's gains. To add to this, buying volume was well down on yesterday's selling. Lead indices, the Nasdaq and S&P, remain technically net positive. However, it's hard to be a buyer here.

Sellers Begin The Squeeze

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The opening gaps lower could have evolved into something worse but indices did well to stay close to their open price, even managing an intraday rally, but not enough to make new highs. Again, the index to watch is the Russell 2000; today's inverse hammer would normally be considered a reverse candlestick, but as it didn't occur at a swing high its significance is reduced. However, we have an index which is lurking near breakout support and looking vulnerable. On the good news front, selling volume was light.

Rallies to Run Into Challenges This Week

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It has been relatively easy climb for indices with March capitulation volume now in the 'green' (i.e. anyone who bought stock in March will now be sitting on profit). The question for these buyers is if they will continue to hold as markets approach the point of the first bounce in February (which feels like a long time ago now), and those buyers may now look at a chance to exit at breakeven. If sellers take control, how much resistance will March buyers put up not to take their profits? For the S&P I have drawn in the resistance line where I expect things to get sticky for bulls. Volume climbed to register as accumulation, so there is still a good deal of momentum near to this resistance - maybe it won't be a problem?

'Bull Trap' Reversal in Russell 2000

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A mixed bag of action for the Russell 2000 as bears create a 'bull trap island reversal' on the break - and subsequent move below $118. It was a move which ran contrary to what's happening in the S&P and Nasdaq.

Russell 2000 Diverges From Nasdaq; But Breakout Holds

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Some low key selling from indices other than the Nasdaq, but not enough damage to reverse the breakouts. Bulls still doing enough to keep the bounce intact. Starting with the positive, the Nasdaq finished a little higher with a bullish hammer and a relative out-performance advantage against the S&P; although the 'bullish hammer' is not a true hammer because momentum is not oversold.

Russell 2000 Breakout

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It started with the S&P but now the Russell 2000 ($IWM) has managed to follow suit with a breakout of its own. The move above $117 has come with a breakout gap, and has room to maneuver before it encounters resistance at its 50-day MA or the March breakdown gap.

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