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Happy New Year!

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Getting back into the swing of things. I offered a yearly outlook here  but this post will focus on the daily charts.  It has been more of the same for indices since the pre-Christmas break. Small gains have helped maintain the breakouts established in early December. Volume has been typically light and should pick up into next week. The S&P has continued to hold to its bullish technicals with relative performance now in the ascendancy (versus the Russell 2000).

Happy Christmas on Triple Witch

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Volume surged heading into Christmas week as Triple Witching for options expiration kicked in. Things are likely to quieten in the next couple of weeks as holiday season kicks in. The S&P added less than 0.5% but it did mean a new high for the index. The technical picture hasn't changed with all technicals bar relative performance in the green. The Nasdaq kept its rally going with an over 1% gain. Unlike the S&P, technicals are all positive along with relative performance  (vs the S&P). The Russell 2000 chugged along as it added new near term highs but hasn't yet made it to challenge 2018 highs. It doesn't look like it will do this before the year is out so this is something to look forward to for 2020. The Dow Jones has managed a little mini-breakout from the December consolidation. The only downside was the black candlestick, which is often a bearish marker at the top of a rally; for this to hold true we will need to see a gap down tomorrow.

Small Gains Keep Festive Spirit Going

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Volume will lighten as Christmas approaches making it easier to push larger than normal gains or losses. Now that indices have pushed past 2018 highs (with the exception of the Russell 2000), stockholders which are holding long positions will be largely in profit - and those with shorts, holding loses. This makes it easier for markets to push more gains and allow value buyers fish around the Russell 2000. The S&P posted a small gain with technicals pointing in the right direction. The index is still losing ground against the Russell 2000 but this is no bad thing for the broader market.

Trading Quietens

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With Christmas fast approaching, trading looks to be slowing into narrow, light volume, range days. There wasn't a whole lot to say about today. The S&P gained a single point although relative performance against the Russell 2000 dropped away from its trigger line. A safe hold for now.

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