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Dow Breakout Stalls; Semiconductors Make or Break.

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The earlier moving Dow Jones got pegged back a little as it fell inside its prior consolidation. Similar moves appeared for the S&P and Tech Averages but as these were still range bound prior to Friday their selling was not as noticed. Markets are in a 50:50 tug-of-war between bulls and bears as these (now) 3-week consolidations work their way to a conclusion. I have redrawn the consolidation for the Dow. Friday's mini-breakout could be viewed as 'bull trap' but I think it's probably fairer to broaden the resistance level for the consolidation. The 200-day MA again looks important but another test so close to its last maybe one too many.  Volume climbed to count as distribution but overall volume was still quite light. Technicals are mixed.

Dow Breakout

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Markets look to have found a new routine with 200-day MAs acting as working support. The 'bear flags' I had marked for the S&P and Dow Jones Industrial average look toast given the latter index has broken resistance from what now looks to be a horizontal consolidation. However, the larger consolidation from all-time highs has yet to be challenged but could see a test Friday or Monday.

Bullish Harami Crosses Offer Swing Low Potential

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Today's action didn't break the bounds of Friday's range but did create a scenario where solid swing lows develop; bullish harami crosses are one of the most effective swing low markers. The best opportunity can be found in the Nasdaq 100. A rally from here would suggest the makings of a trading range which I have marked in the chart below. The typical stop is a loss of 6,320 but I would use a decisive break of the 200-day MA as a stop.

Blog Traffic Picks Up as Bears Take Control

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Blog traffic has doubled over the last three days as 'panic reading' takes hold of the market. Such spikes in readership have in the past acted as good points for a near-term bottom, although today's action does not suggest as such. The S&P and Dow Jones both offered breakdowns from their respective 'bear flags'. The S&P broke from the 'bear flag' and closed just below its 200-day MA. Volume climbed in distribution although there is enough to suggest this could be a support level.

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