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Can 200-day MAs Save Large Caps?

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Thursday and Friday left no doubt as to which side had control of the market. Rallies are now likely to be sold into given the distance from highs. At this stage, the tone for November's mid-terms has likely been set with January highs unlikely to be tested prior to the elections. However, it's not all bad news for longs. The S&P finished right on its 200-day MA. The likelihood is there will be some follow through lower but if buyers can bid this back up to the close of business (creating a doji or 'bullish hammer') then there is a good chance for a swing low. The best example is the S&P.

Stall in Decline

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The good news for bulls was the lack of follow through on the selling. An argument could be made for bullish harami doji in some key indices with stops on a loss of yesterday's lows.

Bears Take Control

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More decisive action from bears today as markets lose support.  The S&P undercut the rising trendline and 20-day plus 50-day MAs in a move which looks like it could develop into a test of the February spike low and the 200-day MA again; support at 2,695 is looking critical here. Aggressive traders could look to buy at these levels but confidence in this holding would not be high.

Expiration Spikes Volume but Markets Flat

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There wasn't much to be said about the gains or losses from Friday but volume spiked which disguised the intention of either bulls or bears. Friday's flat action probably best suits bulls as it marks a stall in selling losses. The S&P is resting on rising support with just On-Balance-Volume on a 'sell' trigger.

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