Yesterday saw big gains for the Russell 2000 as it accelerated past breakout support. A large part of this buying was likely driven by short covering but today's defense of those highs is a vote of confidence by buyers who are looking to hold for longer than a few days. The target of 1,560 is the first overbought target to aim for at the 85th percentile rising to 1,637 for the 95th percentile (of historical prices going back to 1987).

It was a day for watching the Nasdaq and Nasdaq 100 but it was the Russell 2000 which took the day's honors. Both the Nasdaq and Nasdaq 100 held on to channel support for another day although it wasn't entirely a decisive defense. Fifty-day MAs are holding but the 'spinning top' candlesticks are a mark of indecisiveness. Volume climbed to register as accumulation.

The squeeze set-up from last week which offered bulls a likely breakout has now fallen back inside the prior consolidation. Bulls now have a decision to make; do they defend the rising channel? Or let prices drift lower and risk a seller capitulation. A channel break at this stage would be very concerning and would open moves to test the June and August swing lows along with the 200-day MA - each a long way from current levels; in addition, a loss of the August swing low would effectively confirm a double-top.

Friday delivered the upside target of 1,450 I was looking for in the Russell 2000. Next will be some follow through in line with the S&P and Dow breakouts, but this will require a resistance break which will be harder than a resistance tag. Technicals are healthy and relative strength is working strongly in Small Caps favour.