Posts

Another Strong Finish For Markets: Russell 2000 Breakout

Image
While volumes have hardly been inspiring, it has been another good week for markets.  Best of the action came in the Russell 2000, which has traded sideways since the start of December and didn't kick on after the 'huge' rally following Trump's election. Today's 0.75% gain didn't look like much but it did take it above the previous set of swing highs. It also helped in that it was supported by fresh 'buy' triggers for the MACD, Slow Stochastics and ADX

S&P Holds Breakout as Tech Indices Near All-Time Highs

Image
Aside from the light volume it was a solid finish to the week for indices. Tech Indices are very close to new all-time highs as the post-Trump rally continued its unabated ascent; the rally in the Nasdaq 100 has even managed to stay ahead even of its 20-day MA. The only concern for Nasdaq 100 is the loss in relative strength against the Russell 2000, although this hasn't flipped negative. Despite this, a push above 5,172 is likely to trigger short covering and another buying surge.

Bulls Struggle on Volume

Image
There wasn't a whole lot of action in terms of price movement, but what action there was came on heavier volume and reflected a lack of buyer strength as they struggled to challenge last week's highs. Of the indices, the Dow Jones flashed a 'bull trap' to join another in the Russell 2000:

Markets Sell Off But Recover Into Close

Image
Trump kicked off the week with some market turmoil, but market participants still seem to consider his presence good rather than bad for the market.  The only exception was the Russell 2000, which sold off and stayed sold off. This has created a 'bull trap' next to last week's 'bear trap'; a neutral setup. For the Russell 2000, a loss of 1,341 opens up for a retracement down to the 200-day MA at 1,233 and the November swig low of 1,156 (which looks a long, long way away). Technicals saw the trend metric +DI/-DI turn negative as the MACD pulled away from a potential trigger 'buy'; shorts should probably be looking at shorting rallies from here.

Markets Finish Week Maintaining Breakouts

Image
Friday's action was relatively muted, but really it was all about holding the breakouts generated in the first half of the week. While low unemployment suggests the economy is running close to maximum, it's hard to see when this Trump rally will end. It looks like Trump himself will probably kill it with his immigration policy as skilled workers (H1B, Greencard workers) get caught in the sweep. But until then, with buyers exceeding sellers, bulls don't yet have a reason to worry. The S&P has net positive technicals, with relative performance against Small Caps also ticking higher. Of technicals, On-Balance-Volume is looking the weakest and is likely to be the first to turn negative (and suggest sellers are gaining the upper hand).

Market Breather

Image
After two days of gain delivering broad breakouts, today saw markets stall a little as those gains were digested. Despite this, the S&P was still able to offer a MACD trigger 'buy'.  Relative performance also got a little uptick against the Russell 2000. With technicals all in the green any additional weakness will likely be viewed as a pullback buying opportuniy

Markets Add to Breakouts

Image
Another good day for indices as Dow breaks resistance to follow the lead of the S&P and Nasdaq yesterday. The Dow also delivered a MACD trigger 'buy' and +DI/-DI crossover on higher volume accumulation.

Archive

Show more