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Russell 2000 Remains Rich, But Could Get Richer

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The Russell 2000 is getting close to tagging the 5% zone of historic highs relative to the 200-day MA. Selling covered calls would be prudent for holders of the ETF or Small Caps stocks, but since the election it has been all surprises. Premarket for the Nasdaq and S&P suggest the 5% zone could be tagged on Monday.  Technicals are so bullish that the zero mid-line for ROC has disappeared off the chart.

Large Caps Breakout

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Yesterday it was the action of Small Caps. Today it was the turn of Large Caps. Significant gains for both S&P and Dow took indices well past their recent swing highs. The S&P registered an accumulation day on a solid gain of 1.3%. Technicals are all bullish. Will this see a measured move higher? 2,310 is the target.

Reader's Question

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"... One thing though I would like you to shed light on: the price action we see nowadays: 1. Isn't it irrational exuberance 2. How does it compare to 2000 and 2007/08 and 3. In the wake of QEs to date and now promised fiscal stimulus, how large a bubble we will end up creating" Hi Solomon, Thanks for the feedback. [1] The March 2009 low was a 'generational' low for me (i.e. a buying opportunity like this is unlikely to occur again in my lifetime). I have to admit, it came a year early for me - but I think it's a significant low which will stand the test of time. [2] However, the broader market is in need of a significant pullback to mark a cyclical low; one much like in November 2011. The Russell 2000 was the only index to tag this in February 2016 and I think we are seeing the fruits of this now.  But all markets have to experience the sell off to definitively put a mark on this.  It has been 5 years since such a move last happened so we are (very) l

Russell 2000 in Take Profit Territory

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The Russell 2000 pushes again into the 10% zone of historic high prices (1,388 would be enough for the 5% zone last seen in February 2011). Back in 2011 the index rallied for another couple of months before it lost 30% from its high.  The next few weeks would be a good opportunity to take some money off the table to use on the next swing low.

Higher Volume Gaps Higher

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An interesting start to the week. Markets gapped higher off the open and were able to add some distance to their starting points. The Russell 2000 chalked up a near 2% gain as it makes a run on 1,347.  This was enough to finish the day at the high.  The MACD is still on a 'sell' trigger, but another day like today should be enough to reverse it.

Nasdaq 100 Net Bearish

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Friday's action was relatively uneventful with indices finishing near the day's lows, but none accelerating on Thursday's losses. The one change on the intermediate term time frame was the net bearish turn in technicals for the Nasdaq 100. The index remains range bound from August and has struggled as Semiconductors, Small Caps (and now Large Caps) have shone.

Semiconductors Hit Hard

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Internet troubles have limited me tonight, but the one chart I want to show is the near 5% loss in the Semiconductor Index.  Having escaped relatively unscathed from recent day's selling it was a whirlwind of action for the index today.

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