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Dow Edges A Closing Breakout

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Holiday trading action continues with little on offer. The Dow followed action of its peers by edging higher (on a closing basis) of July highs. Technicals haven't quite confirmed with both MACD and OBV still in the red.

Friday's Jobs Boost Holds

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Getting back into the groove with my vacation behind me. Friday's jobs data gave markets a healthy boost into the weekend past to help reverse profit taking from last week. These gains have held for the early part of this week too, although with end-of-summer still a month away it's hard to see where the next boost will come from.  Having said that, there isn't a reason to short, and taking some profits wouldn't hurt, but there is no clear sell signal either. The S&P successfully navigated 2,100 in July and is building a new support level around 2,070. Technicals are drifting a little, but from a position of strong bullishness. Relative performance is perhaps the only concern, but this is only because Small Caps are in a more bullish state.

Move to Speculative Stocks Continues

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Still a week to go before regular service resumes.  However, a quick look of the markets since my last post points to the rude health of more speculative issues while more conservative 'blue chip' stocks glide sideways. Semiconductors have had an excellent summer.  This is a key economic bellwether and points to improved business conditions, helped by cheap copper prices. The burst higher over the early part of last week is consolidating its gains near the large white bar highs. This should also offer a boost to Nasdaq and Nasdaq 100 stocks.

Quick Post: Markets at All-Time Highs

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While away, markets have done their best to rally behind my back. The Brexit reaction has delivered surprising gains - even the FTSE 100 has broken to new near time highs - and it would appear this surprise (is it?) has caught many players on the wrong side of the trade. It's hard to know where to go from here. The summer session is rarely one to get excited about and there is now a multi-year Brexit factor to consider along with a U.S. election to factor. It's hard to be a long term buyer here, but if you are already long there isn't much reason to sell either. Maybe as November approaches things will become clearer for U.S. markets. Market positives are the relative out-performance of Small Caps over Large Caps:

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