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Market Consolidations Continue

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The consolidations developing in the market remained in play by the close of today's business. Volume climbed in confirmed accumulation, which is a potential sign for an upside breakout from these consolidations. But with bearish lead-in trends, any upside breakouts will quickly run into supply issues from Christmas consolidations. The S&P is shaping a pennant just above support from September/October swing lows. There is a weak 'buy' in the MACD and On-Balance-Volume.

Consolidation at Support Suggests Breakdown Favoured

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The back and forth in the markets continued as yesterday's gains were undone by today's higher volume selling. The concern with today's action is that the consolidation in the S&P has the look of a bearish continuation wedge. And given the potential for a measured move, it opens up the possibility for a push down to 1,650s. A weak 'buy' signal in the MACD could trap more bulls.

Good Recovery

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Monday's close had all the look of a retest of last week's spike low. And the Asian session only looked to confirm further weakness as the Chinese market continued its slump. However, bulls kicked off from the open and clawed back most of yesterday's losses. In the end, markets are nicely placed for tomorrow, having undone the damage of yesterday. The S&P still has a 100 point buffer before it gets to supply issues.

Friday's Gains Reversed

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Start Here You've now read my opinion, next read Douglas' and Jani's . It looks like longs weren't prepared to wait for a test of Oct-Dec trading ranges before dumping their positions. Instead, longs took advantage of nascent strength to sell existing positions. If there was a bullish take from this, then it's that selling volume was lighter, which may give bulls something positive to hold on to. What today's action suggests is that a move back to last Wednesday's spike lows would appear to be necessary to firm if support - if such support exists. Unfortunately, such a test would break up September's low as trading range support, and open up the possibility for a measured move lower (i.e. the height of the Sep/Oct - high/low differential, projected lower).

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