A solid Friday to close the week helped push indices towards a challenge of 2015 highs. Volume climbed to register strong accumulation for the Dow and S&P, although things were quieter for the Nasdaq and Nasdaq 100. The Russell 2000 sits just 4 points shy of a new all-time high. Last week's action offered step-by-step advance towards breaking the 'bull trap' at 1268. There is a good chance this high will be posted by Monday's close.

Markets are still bound by the larger range from March, but there was a consolidation breakout on offer from the S&P. It still has overhead supply to work with, but today's buying registered as accumulation. The S&P enjoyed a MACD and Stochastic 'buy' along with today's action. However, On-Balance-Volume still has to trigger a 'buy' signal to turn all technicals net bullish.

I started the day with a short in the Nasdaq 100, and ended the day stopped out. Large Caps didn't quite reach the same highs, but will likely follow the leadership of the Nasdaq and Small Caps. The Russell 2000 will likely lead the indices out. It's very close to negating the 'bull trap'. Tomorrow could be the day.

Markets are coiling towards a decision point (within a larger range defined by March high/lows), although markets sold off in late trading to give bears an opportunity to squeeze bulls tomorrow.  If bears win, then a retest of March swing lows is favored, and failing that, a move to December lows. The S&P is oscillating around the 50-day MA. Today's high at 2,089 marks a short risk level for a push to the March low of 2,039.

Friday's gains came off the back of weak technicals, and didn't really change the larger picture. The S&P is bound by the March swing high/low (the high also marking a double top around 2,115). Until either of these levels break there is little more to add. Even the 20-day/50-day MA isn't offering much help.

Today's losses took indices to test March lows before buyers stepped in to bring things back by the close. For the Nasdaq, bulls came in at the 50-day MA, although today's action registered as higher volume distribution.

Large and Small Caps traded inside yesterday's range, closing lower against yesterday's higher close. While yesterday's buying hasn't been totally eliminated, it will have put a dent in bullish confidence. Watch for follow through selling tomorrow. While the S&P closed above the 20-day and 50-day MA yesterday, today it closed below each of these MAs.  Technicals only require a stochastic drop below the bullish mid line to turn net bearish. Relative performance against the Russell 2000 also accelerated downwards.