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Inside Day Keeps Things Open

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Large and Small Caps traded inside yesterday's range, closing lower against yesterday's higher close. While yesterday's buying hasn't been totally eliminated, it will have put a dent in bullish confidence. Watch for follow through selling tomorrow. While the S&P closed above the 20-day and 50-day MA yesterday, today it closed below each of these MAs.  Technicals only require a stochastic drop below the bullish mid line to turn net bearish. Relative performance against the Russell 2000 also accelerated downwards.

Small Caps pressuring 'Bull Trap'

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The Dow had the best of the action, with higher volume buying to close the day out. The index closed above the 20-day and 50-day MAs. The next challenge is to push above 18,100; which is the 'bull trap' and the recent spike push to 18,205.

Potential for Trading Range

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Indices trading near support, but Friday's close didn't do enough to pull away from support. Monday offers a chance for bulls to make back lost ground, although given this is the second run at support for March there is a higher chance of support failure. In addition, Friday's buying volume was lighter. The S&P continued its under-performance relative to the Russell 2000 and Nasdaq. The 20-day moving average is an opportunity for shorts to attack should bulls be able to mount some follow through from Friday. Otherwise, a cut below Friday's open at 2063 could open the flood gates for bears. Bulls will really need a move above 2095 for confidence to return. The Nasdaq was able to defend its 50-day MA and with Intel looking to takeover Altera there may be room for further gains. As with the S&P, Friday's trading volume was light. If bulls do make an appearance on Monday then watch if bears turn up the heat at the 20-day MA. The Russell 2000 is proba

Nasdaq finishes on 50-day MA

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There was some carryover from yesterday's heavy day of selling. My tracking of ETF alerts for Zignals didn't mark a trend reversal for ultrashort ETFs, only ultralongs; suggesting yesterday's selling was primarily driven by profit taking and not shorting activity. Today's action brought indices closer to support, which slowed the rate of loss. The S&P closed with a neutral 'spinning top' on lighter volume. The 50-day MA didn't offer much support, but the low at 2,039 remains valid.

Big Sell Offs - But Confirmation Required

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A difficult day for bulls as sellers swarmed out of the gates. Volume climbed to register distribution across all indices as technical weakness expanded. The S&P finished the day below its 50-day MA, but hasn't yet challenged support of the March swing low at 2,039. If a double top is to emerge, then a close below 2,039 is required; if this plays true, look for a downward target of 1,965. Technicals already point in shorts favour with a MACD 'sell' trigger and bearish cross of +DI / -DI.

Low Volume Weakness

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Sellers were able to put some distance on resistance which gives shorts something to work with. The S&P closed just below 2093 support, but above 20-day MA; a loss of the latter opens up support at the 50-day MA, then the swing low at 2040.

Large Cap 'Bull Traps' Not Quite Done

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There was a small loss in the indices as Friday's gains consolidated. The S&P closed with a tweezer top, which is a reasonable marker for a bearish (and potentially trade-worthy) reversal. There are zones of support which will stall any decline, but for tomorrow, look for follow through losses.

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