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Weekly Market Commentary: Comprehensive Breadth Recovery

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Market Breadth continued its improvement on the weekly time frame.  The April low is playing out as a major swing low for breadth and the rally from this low still looks to offer further upside. The Percentage of Nasdaq Stocks Above the 50-day MA is net bullish (technically) with 59% of Nasdaq stocks above their 50-day MA.  Plenty of room for upside. The Nasdaq Bullish Percents had a more low key week. Technicals for this instrument are still net bearish. The April low hasn't followed through yet. While the Nasdaq Summation Index bucked the trend by closing down last week, although the April swing low is clear and technicals are net bullish. The improvement in Nasdaq breadth has nicely shaped the parent index.  There is a clear 'handle' forming above 2,885 with the spike lows into 2,800 over the past few weeks indicating demand.  Below this is a good place for stops on long positions.  Technicals net bearish but improving. The S&P had an interest

Daily Market Commentary: Powerful Rally

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The bulk of the gains were achieved at the open, but it was a good day for bulls who applied pressure to shorts acting on the break of the channel - leaving behind a 'bear trap'. The S&P offered a good example with the 50-day MA playing as support. Today's rally regained former channel support and inched above the breakout line defined by the April swing low. The rally in the Nasdaq achieved a little more; it finished yesterday below the 50-day MA but managed to regain both it and channel support today. Bulls may find more on offer tomorrow. Although Nasdaq breadth is under pressure with a net bearish turn in technicals for the Nasdaq Bullish Percents Small Caps just about regained the 50-day and 200-day MA on what was a relatively flat day (doji); 764 key support and place for stops if a buyer. Friday offers bulls a chance to push their advantage.  Today's 'bear traps' are the first step, but there is a chance for more tomorrow.  Stops

Daily Market Commentary: Stall in Decline

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What stood yesterday, held today. One of the exceptions was the Nasdaq 100 which undercut the 50-day MA, but the prior swing low from early July held.  Technicals continued to decline. On the other hand, the Dow was able to mount a small rally, gaining 58 points from working off its 50-day MA.  It also saw an uptick in relative strength to the Nasdaq 100, reflecting a flight to safety.  Volume was considerably lighter, which in itself is a warning sign suggesting the 50-day MA is not major support. The Semiconductor Index was another index to benefit which rallied, but got stuck at its 50-day MA.  Another gain in the next few days to take it past the 50-day MA will set up the 200-day MA as a target. The rally in the semiconductor index may provide the impetus for a move higher in the Nasdaq.  Today's loss confirmed a channel break, but a rally Thursday sets up the potential for a 'bear trap'. Tomorrow is set up for a gain.  Any gain which re-establishes

Daily Market Commentary: Selling Continues

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With the Russell 2000 offer a precedent with a new lower low it went one step further with breaks of 50-day and 200-day MAs.  Technicals continued to deteriorate with a net bearish turn likely to happen over the next  couple of days.  However, the index did manage to finish the day with a back test of former declining resistance defined by March / April swing highs. The S&P lost rising support of its channel but managed to hold on to its 50-day MA despite the higher volume selling (distribution). The Nasdaq also had a tight call.  Tuesday's selling finished a shade below its 50-day MA and channel support, but is close enough to see an early morning rally regain this support. Technicals are a similar poor shape as the S&P with bearish 'sell' triggers in the MACD, On-Balance-Volume and Directional Index. With today's weakness there is a decent opportunity for a rally to regain some of the momentum lost from last week.  The overall outlook is more be

Daily Market Commentary: Weakening Rallies

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A little early for this update as I recover from jet-lag.  The market isn't much different to where I last left it at the start of July. The key difference is each rally peak is become more shallow as swing lows ascend; this squeeze will eventually break - most likely to the downside. Weakness in the S&P is also showing itself in a squeeze in technical strength; the bearish cross in +DI/-DI and On-Balance-Volume with a pending 'sell' in the MACD suggest the June rally is about to come to an end. Selling is harder in the Nasdaq as the most recent swing high was below the prior peak; the MACD is also on a 'sell' trigger as the index (so far) successfully defends the 50-day MA.  There was also a rebuttal off horizontal resistance just below 3,000. Nasdaq Breadth has also taken a hit as the Percentage of Nasdaq Stocks above their 50-day MA drops. The smoother moving Summation Index is also in the process of rolling over in favour of Bears. The

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Daily Market Commentary: Very Low Volume Gain

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In one of the lowest volume trading days of the year markets traded yet another higher close. I don't expect the remainder of the week to be any different.  I'll be on vacation and computer-free for the next couple of weeks so updates will be limited to Twitter . The Russell 2000 continued to play lead charger and comfortably cleared minor resistance at 814. Tuesday also saw breakouts for the Nasdaq 100: And Semiconductor index If these breakouts can hold Monday it will keep attracting money from the sidelines as the July low becomes a more substantial swing low. ---- Follow Me on Twitter Dr. Declan Fallon is the Senior Market Technician and Community Director for Zignals.com . I offer a range of stock trading strategies for global markets which can be Previewed for Free with delayed trade signals. You can also view the top-10 best trading strategies for the US, UK, Europe and Rest-of-the-World in the Trading Strategy Marketplace Leaderboard. The L

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