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Weekly Market Commentary: Mixed Bag

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It was a bit of a confusing week for indices.  In general, there were gains across the indices which honored prior bullish channels, but market breadth was more mixed. The Nasdaq continued to be contained by channel resistance, although it finished off the week's high and back where it started on Monday.  Volume climbed to register as accumulation and technicals remain in good shape. The index looks destined to pull back at some point in the very near future, perhaps coming back as far as 2,900, but it hasn't indicated this yet. The conflict is in Nasdaq Market Breadth. The Nasdaq Bullish Percents look to be rolling out from a swing high, which is bullish. But the Percentage of Nasdaq Stocks above the 50-day MA has suggested a swing low may not be complete and further weakness is likely (for the Nasdaq). The Nasdaq Summation Index is caught in the middle, weakening on the week, but not enough to kill the developing swing low which will help bulls. The S&am

Motley Fool: Two Players to Watch: CHK and TSO

My latest Motley Fool post on Chesapeake Energy (CHK) and Tesoro Petroleum (TSO) is available here -----. Follow Me on Twitter Dr. Declan Fallon is the Senior Market Technician and Community Director for Zignals.com . I offer a range of stock trading strategies for global markets which can be Previewed for Free with delayed trade signals. You can also view the top-10 best trading strategies for the US, UK, Europe and Rest-of-the-World in the Trading Strategy Marketplace Leaderboard. The Leaderboard also supports advanced search capability so you can tailor your strategies to suit your individual requirements. Zignals offers a full suite of FREE financial services including price and fundamental stock alerts , stock charts for Indian, Australian, Frankfurt, Euronext, UK, Ireland and Canadian stocks, tabbed stock quote watchlists, multi-currency portfolio manager , active stock screener with fundamental trading strategy support and trading system builder. Forex, prec

Daily Market Commentary: Losses Recovered

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By lunchtime today it was looking like the day would belong to bears, but bulls were able to step up in afternoon trading - perhaps fearful of missing out on any more of this rally (given the rally maturity). But it wasn't all good news for bulls. The S&P was able to defend its 20-day MA, but not before on-balance-volume triggered a 'sell' to follow the earlier 'sell' trigger in the MACD. The Nasdaq followed the S&P with a 'sell' trigger in its on-balance-volume, although other technicals remain bullish. With the Percentage of Nasdaq Stocks above the 50-day MA trading at support once more; this offers a support 'buy'. But breadth support is offset by the potential 'bull trap' in Tech bellwether Semiconductor index. If bears aren't to be encouraged to go short there will need to be a rapid return above 440.  Bulls can look to the 20-day MA as an area for stop placement Finally the Russell 2000 experienced a &#

Daily Market Commentary: Confirmed Distribution

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Today's selling didn't result in significant point losses for the indices, but the volume was enough to rank as distribution for the S&P. The S&P also suffered a MACD trigger 'sell' with a relative swing away from Small Caps to Large Caps (bearish). The Nasdaq also shed 0.5%, but didn't suffer the bearish turn in indicators as for the S&P While the Russell 2000 gave up a little more than the aforementioned indices, but did enough to retain 833 support. In my piece on the Zignals blog I talked about the status of the S&P and its bullish outlook for the coming 12 months. So while the bulls hold short term control, it's not going to be a bad thing if indices enter a more protracted decline. However, neither of these cases are of concern for tomorrow; Thursday's challenge is holding breakout support - the Russell 2000 in particular. ---- Follow Me on Twitter Dr. Declan Fallon is the Senior Market Technician and Commun

Daily Market Commentary: Mild Losses

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It was a generally good day for the indices.  Markets were able to finish near Tuesday's highs without losing on heavier volume. Because of this, there was little to report on individual charts. The S&P has its bearish wedge While the Nasdaq is riding its former support line. Helped by the semiconductor index's breakout. The Russell 2000 gave back the most, but the breakout remains valid. Will any of this change tomorrow? ---- Follow Me on Twitter Dr. Declan Fallon is the Senior Market Technician and Community Director for Zignals.com . I offer a range of stock trading strategies for global markets which can be Previewed for Free with delayed trade signals. You can also view the top-10 best trading strategies for the US, UK, Europe and Rest-of-the-World in the Trading Strategy Marketplace Leaderboard. The Leaderboard also supports advanced search capability so you can tailor your strategies to suit your individual requirements. Zignals

Daily Market Commentary: Bulls Move In

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This may be a rally running on fumes, but it's not going to go down without a fight.  Sharp gains were again offset by some light(ish) volume, but there was enough momentum to undo the 'Bull Trap' in the Russell 2000 and inch a breakout in the semiconductor index. The S&P is again pushed up against rising wedge resistance.  But there is an important relative shift away from Large Caps to Small Caps which is a net bullish event.  Technicals remain bullish; on-balance-volume is trending solidly higher in favor of accumulation. The Nasdaq enjoyed more of a volume bump against its Large Caps counterpart (bullish).  The rally has taken it well past 3,000 support and has no overhead supply to consider until it gets to 4,250. Helping the Nasdaq rally is the semiconductor index.  I would have liked to have seen a stronger response from buyers given its move to a new 7-year high - but given it has been stuck in the doldrums for so long it's still good news.

Weekly Market Commentary: Breakouts Hold

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It was a bit of a mixed bag for indices on the weekly time-frame. Vulnerable Small Caps finished the week as they started, sticking around 830.  This area has been resistance for most of 2012, but larger resistance lurks at 865. The week was a little more sketchy for the Nasdaq. The Nasdaq was able to rally almost 0.5% as it continued to run along wedge resistance. Volume eased, but the index enjoys a well established breakout that could tolerate a 200 point drop and still remain in the bull camp. Interestingly, Nasdaq Breadth - in the shape of the Percentage of Stocks above their 50-day MA - is fishing for a swing low.  This particular index lost ground despite the gain in the parent index. In contrast, the Nasdaq Bullish Percents is shaping a swing high (=> lower prices ahead); although past peaks have been brushed aside relatively easily in the past. Meanwhile, the S&P closed almost 0.5% lower, but has enough wiggle room before it has to test support at

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