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Weekly Market Commentary: Channel Support Plays Out

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Last week the charts were showing an opportunity for a bounce. Bar Monday's failure to follow through on Friday's selling it was a great week for bulls. The only downside on the week was the poor volume. The Nasdaq finished on former resistance at 2,818 but the real challenge will be breaking 2,888. Given the lack of volume it may be a week of consolidation before a stronger challenge on highs can be mounted. Nasdaq via StockCharts.com Supporting Nasdaq internals all confirmed the reaction low with room to maneuver to resistance (i.e. the rally isn't done yet). The Percentage of Nasdaq Stocks above the 50-day MA rose from a reaction low of 21% to an end-of-week 52%. Nasdaq Percent of Stocks Above 50 Day Moving Average ($NAA50R) via StockCharts.com And the Summation Index offers plenty of upside potential with stochastics still in oversold territory on bounce. Nasdaq Summation Index (Ratio Adjusted) ($NASI) via StockCharts.com But Nasdaq Bullish Percents at 54

Daily Market Commentary: Rallies to Resistance

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For a fourth day in a row markets posted gains. This took lead indices to resistance, although the Dow bucked the trend by smashing through. I haven't focused on the Dow as it hasn't done anything unique, but today the Dow broke declining resistance connecting reaction highs for April. Volume climbed to register an accumulation day, supporting the validity of the break. ($INDU) via StockCharts.com The S&P wasn't able to achieve the same success, finishing the day at declining resistance. Volume was also lighter, although it was able to close above its 50-day MA. It might be a tall ask to see a fifth day of gains, but with the Dow comfortably ahead it's not outside expectation (although unlikely). ($SPX) via StockCharts.com The Nasdaq was interesting. Like the S&P it finished at resistance, but unlike the S&P and the Dow, technicals turned net bullish. So while price action underperformed that of the Dow, technically it's better positioned for

Daily Market Commentary: Higher Volume Gain

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There was a modest follow through to two days worth of gains. Volume picked up, but it was well below recent selling volume. With a three day winning sequence ("three white soldiers") in the bag, now may be time for bears to apply some pressure and test how resilient buying has been. The S&P followed MACD and On-balance-volume 'buy' signals with one between +DI/-DI. The 50-day MA lies less than 1% away, so there is a logical supply area to restrict further gains. ($SPX) via StockCharts.com The Nasdaq didn't get as big a kick on the volume buying. It finished with a doji on resistance (with additional resistance at the 50-day MA), but enjoyed two 'buy' triggers for on-balance-volume and +DI/-DI. The doji has the look of a bearish "shooting star", so watch for a gap down and selling to follow. ($COMPQ) via StockCharts.com The Russell 2000 also closed with a doji, smack bang on its 50-day MA. There was also a bullish cross between +DI/

Daily Market Commentary: Tech and Small Caps Breakout

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While the S&P managed to nick a breakout it was the Nasdaq and Russell 2000 which enjoyed the best of Tuesday's trading. Unfortunately, buying volume was insipid and the number of breakout stocks was very disappointing . So while price action was positive, there was little substance to back it. Going forward bulls will be looking for some narrow trading around Tuesday's highs, preferably on lower volume. ($SPX) via StockCharts.com The Nasdaq's gains, while also on low volume, are close to triggering a 'buy' in on-balance-volume. The 50-day MA is the next upside target at 2,762. ($COMPQ) via StockCharts.com It was a similar picture for the Russell 2000, putting it well on its way to test channel resistance. The 50-day MA is currently at 821, or just 4 points away. AAAAAAAAD Russell 2000 Small Cap Index ($RUT) via StockCharts.com On a final point, the percentage of Nasdaq Stocks above the 50-day MA confirmed a bear trap. The next rally in the Nasdaq

Daily Market Commentary: Bullish Recovery

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The wild daily swings in the market continued as bulls made their stand following Friday's selloff. Monday's buying helped maintain March swing lows for the Nasdaq, Nasdaq 100 and S&P. The S&P opened a few points above its 200-day MA and was able to rally back to its 20-day MA before sellers emerged late afternoon. The index is well poised to make further gains tomorrow. ($SPX) via StockCharts.com The Nasdaq made stronger inroads on Friday's selling and was able to finish above Friday's open price; the Nasdaq may be the index for bulls tomorrow. The 50-day MA at 2,763 is the next upside target. ($COMPQ) via StockCharts.com The Nasdaq Bullish Percents strengthened the swing low with a MACD 'buy' signal to follow the earlier CCI 'buy'. Improved technical strength was in combination with a crossover in the 3-day x 5-day EMA. Another factor favoring further highs for the Nasdaq tomorrow. Nasdaq Composite Bullish Percent Index (EOD) ($BPCO

Weekly Market Commentary: Channel Support Holds

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Friday's selling - selling which took the indices into Thursday's lows - typically follows with another day of selling, but the weekly picture still offers reason for optimism. The Nasdaq is nearest to weekly channel support and is the index to watch for how channels will play as support for other indices. Nasdaq via StockCharts.com The Percentage of Nasdaq Stocks Above the 50-day MA made gains on the week, but at 29% it's still oversold and stochastics are at a swing low; this is positive for a rally in the Nasdaq. Nasdaq Percent of Stocks Above 50 Day Moving Average ($NAA50R) via StockCharts.com The Nasdaq Summation Index is in bounce territory too - although well off the depths of despair from the 2008 bottom. But like the Percentage of Nasdaq Stocks above 50-day MA, stochastics are at a swing low where a bounce can emerge in the Nasdaq itself. Nasdaq Summation Index (Ratio Adjusted) ($NASI) via StockCharts.com The Nasdaq 100 is sticking to its 2007 reactio

Daily Market Commentary: 200-day MA Tests Came Sooner Than Expected

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In a volatile day, the S&P and Nasdaq both paid visits to their 200-day MAs only to finish the day near yesterday's close. Volume climbed to register a distribution day for the S&P and an accumulation one for the Nasdaq. The S&P spike low finished right at the 200-day MA. A late afternoon rally helped recover the bulk of the losses. This sets up an interesting scenario for tomorrow morning. ($SPX) via StockCharts.com The Nasdaq was able to go a step further than the S&P. It finished the day 'engulfing' the real body of yesterday's candlestick and with a higher close. This leaves the index set for a challenge of its 20-day MA. Helping the Nasdaq was the stronger than expected gain in the semiconductor index. Thursday saw a close in the semiconductor index above what was achieved by key indices. This helps offset the huge slide experienced by this index. Finally, the Russell 2000 spiked all the way down to former pennant support (but didn'

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