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Daily Market Commentary: Fourth Day of Rest

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For today, see yesterday (and for yesterday, see the day before!). Tight trading ruled the day, although there were some movers and shakers. The S&P marked a second high trading volume day in a row, but it would be hard to attribute the small gain to accumulation. ($SPX) via StockCharts.com The Nasdaq punched into the breakdown gap, but the small black candlestick is more bearish than bullish. But on a positive note, since the bear trap in early March any heavy volume day has swung in favour of buyers. ($COMPQ) via StockCharts.com The semiconductor index also broke past declining resistance. Only to finish nestled below its 50-day MA; a battle was won, but not the war. ($SOX) via StockCharts.com The Russell 2000 posted another black candlestick, but not a clear cut 'shooting star'. A test of 836 remains a favored short term challenge. ($RUT) via StockCharts.com So while Large and Small Caps dithered, there was an attempted push higher from semiconductors

Daily Market Commentary: Waiting For The Break

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Markets experienced a third day of indecision, leaving things much as they were yesterday. The S&P has an inside day doji with modestly higher volume (although volume well below that of late March and early April). Natural play is to trade break of 3-day high/low with a stop on the flip side of the break. ($SPX) via StockCharts.com The Nasdaq attempted a move into the breakdown gap, but it was quickly repelled, leaving the index back at gap resistance. Higher volume counts as an accumulation day, but point gains are what's really needed. ($COMPQ) via StockCharts.com The expectation was for the semiconductor index to drive higher on the back of the NSM takeover. Instead, the gains failed to break declining resistance, or get close to its 50-da MA. ($SOX) via StockCharts.com The failure of the semiconductor to break was enough to keep the lid on the reconstituted Nasdaq 100 via StockCharts.com The Russell 2000 added another half a percentage point. The continuou

Daily Market Commentary: Markets Finely Poised

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There wasn't a whole lot going on in lead indices. The S&P finished with a low volume doji which could offer a swing trade opportunity on break of high/low (stop on the flip side). Technicals are bullish and rising, so the expectation is for a break to the upside. But a double top can't be ruled out either - for this to confirm it will require a (swift) move back and below 1,260. ($SPX) via StockCharts.com The Nasdaq finds itself with another indecisive doji (next to Friday's shooting star) bang on gap resistance. The February gap down dominates and if it's a true breakdown then it's a gap which cannot be filled. Should the gap fill then 2,840 won't be long for resistance. Aggressive bulls can buy break of 2,800, while shorts will be looking to cover around 2,832. ($COMPQ) via StockCharts.com Helping bulls is a confirmed net bullish stance in Nasdaq Bullish Percents and Summation Index ($BPCOMPQ) via StockCharts.com ($NASI) via StockCharts.com S

Weekly Market Commentary: Second Week Low Volume Rally

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While dailies are keeping bulls happy, the weeklies are a little more cool. This week marked yet another low volume rally. The Nasdaq is a good case in point. Nasdaq via StockCharts.com But the Nasdaq 100 ably defended 2,217 a few weeks back and may have the strength to drag the Nasdaq and other indices to new all-time highs. ($NDX) via StockCharts.com Nasdaq Breadth - as marked by the Bullish Percent Index - has made an attempted defense of the 60% level. In past instances (2009) of a successful test of this level the parent index powered to new highs. Although technicals are weaker this time around (Confirmed 'Sell'). ($BPCOMPQ) via StockCharts.com On a more positive front, the Russell 2000 is very close to new all-time highs. Should it follow the lead of the Nasdaq 100 it would put the overall market in a very bullish alignment (just needs volume!) ($RUT) via StockCharts.com The S&P defended 1,300 early on the week and there is plenty riding on this key

Daily Market Commentary: Minor Changes

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A brief respite in the buying with a drop in trading volume compared to Wednesday. The narrow trading may offer a swing trade opportunity on break of high/lows. The S&P fell slightly but is nicely set for a swing trade. ($SPX) via StockCharts.com The Nasdaq posted small gains on higher volume accumulation. Looks good to push higher. The narrow trading of the past couple of days suggests a sizable one-day move will soon follow. Technicals rising along with bullish momentum but they are not overbought, another tick in favour of buyers. ($COMPQ) via StockCharts.com Small Caps added a few more points, confirming yesterday's breakout. How will the MACD fare at the bearish divergence? So far it has played very well for bulls . ($RUT) via StockCharts.com One index where bears have the edge is the semiconductor index; rebuffed at trendline resistance. A short position can trail a stop at the 50-day MA and/or declining trendline. ($SOX) via StockCharts.com Rallies are ov

Daily Market Commentary: Small Caps Advance

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Today belonged to the Russell 2000. The leading index cracked above the 2011 high, offering new longside opportunities. Technicals continue to rise, although it will be a few days before the bearish divergence in the MACD is challenged. ($RUT) via StockCharts.com Large Caps had their time in the sun too. The S&P saw its technicals turn net bullish on higher volume accumulation. ($SPX) via StockCharts.com While the Dow finished shy of a push to a new 2011 high. ($INDU) via StockCharts.com The Nasdaq or Nasdaq 100 have yet to enjoy the same strength as the aforementioned indices. Both remain technically net bearish. ($COMPQ) via StockCharts.com So it looks to be up to the Russell 2000 to drive this rally higher. Tech has been a disappointment, but is at least heading in the right direction. Defensive large caps have an opportunity tomorrow to break 2011 resistance, although overall volume has been disappointing (despite being higher). Bulls in control. Follow Me on

Daily Market Commentary: Bullish Engulfing Patterns

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Markets opened weak but were able to make back lost ground and then some. The S&P confirmed a breakout from the downward channel on heavier volume (but light volume compared to what's gone before). ($SPX) via StockCharts.com The Nasdaq offered a sizable bullish engulfing pattern, without the higher volume accumulation, but with enough juice to outperform the S&P (on a relative basis). ($COMPQ) via StockCharts.com Nasdaq Breadth continued to improve with a MACD trigger 'buy' and a rise in stochastics from oversold conditions. ($BPCOMPQ) via StockCharts.com While the Percentage of Nasdaq Stocks above the 50-day MA shifted technicals net bullish after stochastics crossed the bullish mid-line. ($NAA50R) via StockCharts.com Small Caps also cracked out a bullish engulfing pattern as it hugged former support higher. Since early February Small Caps have been outperforming Tech, and Large Caps since mid-May. As the leading index it should be favoured by buyer

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