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Daily Market Commentary: S&P Stall in Bounce But Small Caps Follow On

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Not surprising to see the advance stall as prior highs are approached, but it wasn't all doom and gloom. For the S&P volume climbed to register a bearish distribution day; the second heavier volume selling day in four - although market indecision lessens volumes' significance. Technicals favour the bear side but were little changed on the day. ($SPX) via StockCharts.com The Nasdaq had a more traditional indecisive doji and the challenge is set for bulls to drive this higher. Swing traders can look to take advantage of the narrow intraday spread to set entry and exit points. ($COMPQ) via StockCharts.com But the semiconductor index dipped into the prior gap in a clear selloff, finding demand at the rising trendline off February lows. The CCI switched to a 'sell' trigger. ($SOX) via StockCharts.com However, small caps managed a new closing high for the February-April rally which should help Tech and Large Caps. ($RUT) via StockCharts.com So can Small Ca

Daily Market Commentary: Bounce Day 2

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The second day of the bounce saw more inroads into Friday's losses. Whether the S&P recovered from the breakdown is up for discussion but volume was disappointing compared to Friday's selloff. Technicals edged lower but there was no significant shift to the bears side (i.e. no new triggers). ($SPX) via StockCharts.com Small Caps had the best of the days action with over a 1% gain (good news for bulls with speculative issues leading on the day). The CCI 'sell' trigger from Friday was negated and rising support from February lows held. ($RUT) via StockCharts.com Tech was lackluster with the Nasdaq 100 neutral doji on a MACD 'sell'; looking vulnerable for Wednesday. Swing trade the doji (use 1% stop on flip High/Low) ($NDX) via StockCharts.com Of breadth indicators the Percentage of Nasdaq Stocks above 50-day MA has its own problems with the bearish cross of 5-day EMA on MACD, plus Relative Strength and CCI trigger 'sells'. Note bearish diverge

Daily Market Commentary: Relief Bounce in Effect

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Not surprising to see markets recover after Friday's heavy selling. The S&P low of 1183.68 was a picture perfect 20-day MA test but Friday's close ranked as a breakdown (from the perspective of candlestick real-bodies - but not full intraday ranges), so the bounce is working against resistance, not support as before. The MACD switched to a 'sell' but it has been whipsawing the past few weeks so it's not a strong signal. ($SPX) via StockCharts.com The Dow actually broke channel support on April 7th and marked a successful backtest on April 14th. Monday made substantial inroads to Friday but the rate of ascent from February lows has slowed. It too closed with a MACD trigger 'sell'. ($INDU) via StockCharts.com Tech averages clinged to channel support with the breakout gaps closed (true breakout gaps never close). But the recovery off the lows may see some follow through up over the coming days given the successful defense of support. ($COMPQ) via S

Weekly Market Commentary: Shooting Star

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Perhaps the first significant sign of a top in the weekly charts was the across the board bearish shooting stars. For the S&P the potential reversal occurred below resistance and will need a weekly close below the low of the pattern to confirm (1,186). Volume ranked as confirmed distribution with some of the heaviest selling last seen in the latter part of 2009 (although that selling didn't halt the advance). ($SPX) via StockCharts.com The shooting star for the Nasdaq bisected the first of two reaction high resistance levels from 2008. The index is getting sharply squeezed by the aforementioned resistance and the rising support from March 2009 lows AAAA Nasdaq via StockCharts.com The weekly move for the Nasdaq 100 spanned the dual reaction highs of 2008 ($NDX) via StockCharts.com The Percentage of Nasdaq Stocks above the 50-day MA was pegged by declining resistance and has been struggling to keep momentum. ($NAA50R) via StockCharts.com Nasdaq Bullish Percents have b

Stock Market Commentary: Pause in the Advance

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No surprise to see markets take a pause after yesterday's gains. The S&P posted a fairly standard doji on heavy volume. ($SPX) via StockCharts.com But the Nasdaq was able to push a little higher ($COMPQ) via StockCharts.com And the Nasdaq 100 too, although it finished the day at channel resistance ($NDX) via StockCharts.com The semiconductor index finished with a bearish shooting star - perhaps the only index to finish the day with something bearish to say: ($SOX) via StockCharts.com Breakout gaps are the logical downside target for the next period of weakness but bulls are very much in control. Follow Me on Twitter Build a Trading Strategy in Zignals; Read how and earn real money (once out of Beta) in this PDF. Dr. Declan Fallon, Senior Market Technician for Zignals.com , offers a range of stock trading strategies for global markets, also available through the latest rich internet application for finance, the Zignals MarketPortal or the Zignals Trading Str

Stock Market Commentary: Powers Higher

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The past few days had the look of a tired rally but Intel and JP Morgan added a bit of pep and buyers returned. This piled on the misery for shorts who again were put on the defensive, but it was the activity of buyers which added to the spice of panic covering. For the S&P it was rising support which bulls were prepared to defend. Supporting technicals continued to improve even though the MACD remains flattish. ($SPX) via StockCharts.com The Nasdaq enjoyed the best gains thanks to Intel. There is a breakout gap to be defended with some of the strongest buying volume for the year. There is even room to run to channel resistance. ($COMPQ) via StockCharts.com For Bulls there was the added bonus of some of the biggest gains for the lead averages in the Russell 2000 ($RUT) via StockCharts.com With a sizable breakout gap in the semiconductor index (good for the economy) ($SOX) via StockCharts.com There are big gains for bulls to hang on to and at this stage of the rally it

Stock Market Commentary: Recovers Losses

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Bulls refuse to let go after weak Alcoa earnings had looked to set the tone. However, morning selling gave way to afternoon buying, enough to finish with slightly higher close on higher volume accumulation - the first real buying in four days. ($SPX) via StockCharts.com The Nasdaq had a more positive day given it was influenced less by Alcoa. Prices continue to hug rising support as the late March MACD 'sell' gave way to a new 'buy' trigger. Accumulation day chalked up too. ($COMPQ) via StockCharts.com Small Caps also inched higher as the rate of ascent for both 20-day MAs and 50-day MAs increased. ($RUT) via StockCharts.com The VXN volatility index is getting very close to the lows of 2005 and with the bullish wedge narrowing to an apex. Why 2005 lows didn't lead to an immediate market reversal it was the start of increased volatility period which eventually pushed the market over the edge. ($VXN) via StockCharts.com Can tomorrow make it five in a row

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