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Stock Market Commentary: Distribution but no real weakness

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The losses on heavier volume rank as distribution but on a point scale the losses were mild. However, it wasn't the upside follow through which yesterday's gains had set up. The biggest hit came with small caps and the bearish engulfing pattern brought the index towards its 20-day MA with relative strength shifting back in favour of tech indices; markets are now in their most bearish alignment of large caps > tech > small caps. The semiconductor index had a shooting star (which fell outside of overbought stochastic levels so it's a weak candleline) along with a MACD trigger 'sell'. An underlying weakness influencing tech averages. The weakness in tech averages is apparent in the percentage of Nasdaq stocks above their 50-day MAs. Since peaking in May the percentage has dropped from 85% down to 68% of stocks above this key moving average. How long can this rally last and how hard will it fall when the inevitable decline arrives? How much desire is there from si

Stock Market Commentary: Bull comeback with little volume

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It was set up for a good day for the bulls with respectable gains, but volume was lacking. The market is now well set up for some follow through and further gains will mean new 52-week highs for the indices. The Dow is back against channel resistance with a break of the negative divergence in the MACD - this is a bullish set up for Tuesday. Even the semiconductor index was able to dig in at its 20-day MA Will tomorrow see more bull gains? If so - and they are going to stick - then some decent volume better go with them. Dr. Declan Fallon, Senior Market Technician, Zignals.com the free stock alerts , stock charts , watchlist, multi-currency portfolio manager and strategy builder website. Forex data available too.

Stock Market Commentary: Buyers Join Afternoon Fun

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It was a day where bulls were expecting the bears at the party, but the bears never showed so they took over and partied late into the night (or afternoon...). The returns were modest but important was not losing yesterday's gains. On a chart none of it looked like much. One thing I hadn't quoted yesterday was the MACD trigger 'buy' in the Russell 2000 - the current market leader But there was one worrying sign in the semiconductor index; a shooting star reversal at former channel support turned resistance. A CCI 'sell' trigger adds to the probability for a larger downward move One significant positive was the net bullish supporting technicals in the Percentage of Nasdaq stocks above the 50-day MA: Can other breadth indicators follow suit? Might see a little weakness on expiration Friday. Dr. Declan Fallon, Senior Market Technician, Zignals.com the free stock alerts , stock charts , watchlist, multi-currency portfolio manager and strategy builder website. Fore

Stock Market Commentary: Positve Response

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After two days of quiet trading markets perked up on heavier volume, closing at their highs. There was also some technical improvement with a MACD trigger 'buy' for the Nasdaq - although it continues to underperform against the S&P. The Nasdaq 100 also enjoyed a MACD trigger 'buy' on accumulation: The Dow is again bumping against upper channel resistance. However, any break would produce an unsustainable run given the angle. But the rally in the S&P is looking very healthy: With today's gains the last attempt by bears to break the run in September is now history. Dr. Declan Fallon, Senior Market Technician, Zignals.com the free stock alerts , stock charts , watchlist, multi-currency portfolio manager and strategy builder website. Forex data available too.

Stock Market Commntary: Indecision Day 2

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Another day, another doji for the markets. You could more or less copy-and-paste yesterday's comments for today. There were only two points of interest. First was the positive test of the 20-day MA in the Russell 2000 Second was the MACD trigger 'buy' for the SOX. However the index finished below resistance. On the breadth front there was a bullish cross of the 5-day EMA for the Bullish Percents. With the VXN toying once more with long term support We'll see how it will all mix up down the road. Dr. Declan Fallon, Senior Market Technician, Zignals.com the free stock alerts , stock charts , watchlist, multi-currency portfolio manager and strategy builder website. Forex data available too.

Stock Market Commentary: Indecisive Doji

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Breaking to new highs was a step too far for some of the indices after prior five days worth of gains. But the days' indecision was not accompanied by heavier volume churn so it would appear to play more towards a consolidation than a reversal point. However, a gap down tomorrow would give bears something to work with. The Nasdaq looks ready to repeat a mid-August like retracement; the October reaction low - and/or 50-day MA - will be critical for bulls to defend if Tuesday opens on weakness (in order to maintain the sequence of higher highs and higher lows). MACD trigger line inching towards a 'buy' trigger. The Dow was an exception in it was able to make a new higher high with a MACD trigger 'buy' and bullish cross for on-balance-volume: The semiconductor index crept over former channel support but closed on the line. It looks the most vulnerable to an Evening Star candle line. Tomorrow will likely see some follow through downside but it will be the volume that ac

Weekly Review of Stockcharts.com Publishers' Charts

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Another excellent week for bulls with bears felling the force of momentum against them. Anthony Caldaro of Objectiveelliotwave.com looks to have backed down on his bearish 'ABC' count and has taken a more bullish (?) new 5-wave trending phase - wave 2 of 5 about to develop? Yong Pan of Cobrasmarketview has more bearish than bullish signals for both short and intermediate term, but nothing unusual with this in recent months But, in the following chart there is still a confirmed trendline break - even with 5 days of gains. Same broken trendline going back to March And another resistance line here However - lovely bullish cup-and-handle breakout on the 5-min SPY: Richard Lehman has markets pointing upwards once more with the October meltdown unlikely to be significant (if occurring at all!) 10/11 -- The hourly charts are rather clear now in showing the recent uptrend. This removes the scenario of a repeat of the 10% June-July correction -- at least for now. In the longer pict

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